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Weather and Climate News
Mark Zdechlik and Anna Haecherl

Minnesota Pollution Control Agency forecasts moderately active air quality this summer

The Minneapolis skyline is seen
The Minneapolis skyline, seen from Powderhorn Park, is obscured by wildfire smoke on Wednesday, June 28, 2023, in Minneapolis.
Kerem Yücel | MPR News

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The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency is forecasting a moderately active air quality season for this summer.

While not expected to be extreme, this year’s outlook includes air quality concerns related to ozone and wildfire smoke, especially during periods of dry, sunny weather. 

MPCA Meteorologist Matt Taraldsen says following repeated air quality problems from wildfire smoke in 2023, Minnesotans have been much more interested in air quality issues.

"We expect a season similar to 2024 which, across the entire state, wasn't too terribly bad, but across Northwestern Minnesota, we still had 11 days of alerts,” Taraldsen said. “We're not expecting something as bad as 2023, but we're still expecting multiple days of wildfire and smoke impacts.”

Air quality forecast

  • Forecast models predict four to seven days this summer where ozone levels may be unhealthy for sensitive groups. This is slightly above Minnesota’s historical average.

  • The highest risk areas include the Twin Cities suburbs and parts of southeastern Minnesota near Rochester.

  • Drought and below-average rainfall are expected to lead to more sunny days, creating favorable conditions for ozone to form.

  • Sensitive groups, including children, older adults and people with heart or lung conditions, should plan outdoor activities carefully on high ozone days.

  • Between 12 and 16 days of wildfire smoke impacts are expected in Minnesota this summer.

  • Drought-stressed vegetation across the region and elevated wildfire activity in Canada contribute to the risk.

  • A neutral El Niño southern oscillation pattern may lead to more variable wind patterns, increasing the likelihood that smoke will reach Minnesota.

  • Smoke from wildfires can contain fine particles that pose health risks, even for healthy individuals.

New air quality index PM10

The agency is also rolling out a new air quality index.

The new PM10 index will track the level of coarse pollutants in the air such as dust and dirt.  The change comes after a significant dust event in October 2024. These new alerts will better protect public health during similar events that could become more common with less snow covering the ground during the winter.

The MPCA is also expanding its communication efforts with a new MN AQI Facebook page, where forecasts, alerts and live updates during major air quality events will now be posted. 

The agency also offers current conditions and a three-day forecast for air quality in Minnesota on its website.