Minnesota Poll Watch 2024: Forecasters say the state still leans toward Biden
What the latest surveys, forecasts and fundraising data say about the state’s presidential, U.S. Senate and Congressional races
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To help keep our finger on the pulse of this year’s elections we are tracking poll results, fundraising data and forecasted election outcomes for Minnesota’s U.S. presidential race as well as the races for U.S. Senate and our eight seats in the U.S. House.
We will update this page when new data is released. Note that we vet each poll and only include credible public polls conducted in good faith. We do not include polls released by campaigns or related interest groups.
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
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U.S. President
Background: Minnesota has the nation’s longest streak among all states for favoring a Democrat for president. A Republican has not won the presidential race in Minnesota since 1972, when Republican President Richard Nixon defeated Democratic nominee George McGovern by 5.5 percentage points. In 2020, then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the state by a margin of 7.1 percentage points over then-Republican President Donald Trump. In 2016, Trump also lost the state, but only by 1.5 percentage points.
The latest polls: Biden and Trump are tied, with 45 percent of registered voters favoring each, according to a mid-June poll by The Hill and Emerson College. This poll showed a variety of results in the presidential horse-race: Biden has a three point edge among registered voters who say they are “very likely” to vote in November; Biden has a two point edge among all registered voters when those saying they are undecided are asked who they lean toward; and Trump has just under a one-point edge when third party candidates are included in a separate question.
Regardless of the particular question referenced, however, that most recent poll — like the seven others before it — shows the presidential race in Minnesota currently too close to call when factoring in the undecided voters and the error margins or credibility intervals that accompany the results (+/- 3 percentage points in the most recent survey of 1,000).
In early June the MPR News | Star Tribune | KARE11 Minnesota Poll of 800 likely voters, conducted immediately after Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush money trial, found that 45 percent favored Biden, 41 percent favored Trump, six percent favored Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and seven percent were undecided. That poll also found that 62 percent of those favoring Trump were “very enthusiastic” about their preferred candidate, compared with only 31 percent among those favoring Biden.
The most recent KSTP/WDIO/KAAL poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, in mid-June, found Biden ahead of Trump by a margin of 6 percentage points. However, the credibility interval associated with that survey of 626 likely voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, meaning that the percentage of voters favoring Trump likely falls somewhere in the range from 36.5 percent to 45.5 percent, while Biden’s support falls somewhere between 42.5 percent and 51.5 percent. While technically the math comparing poll results gets somewhat more complicated, the upshot is that the overlap in those two ranges of possible results means that the race is statistically tied.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated the presidential race for Minnesota’s 10 electoral college votes as follows:
Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
Inside Elections: Leans Democrat
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Leans Democrat — changed from “Likely” on July 3
ABC News/538: Leans Democrat (69 percent chance that Biden will win; 31 percent chance for Trump)
Incumbent job approval: In Minnesota, Biden’s job approval ratings have hovered between 41 percent and 48 percent over the course of his presidency. One of the two most recent polls, shows a dip in that rating: Only 38 percent of Minnesotans approve of Biden’s performance as president according to The Hill/ Emerson College’s mid-June poll of 1,000 registered voters. In comparison, however, a very similarly timed KSTP/WDIO/KAAL poll done by Survey USA found that 42 percent of registered voters approve of Biden’s performance.
Trump’s approval ratings in Minnesota hovered between 39 percent and 45 percent during the course of his presidency.
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
U.S. Senate
Background: Incumbent DFLer Amy Klobuchar is seeking reelection to the seat she has occupied since 2007. She won her last election, in 2018, by a 24 percentage point margin.
Prior to the Minnesota Republican Convention in mid-May, the GOP’s presumed challenger to Klobuchar was Navy veteran Joe Fraser, who was running with the encouragement of prominent Republicans in Washington. Delegates to the convention, however, endorsed Royce White, a podcaster and former professional basketball player.
The latest polls: Klobuchar has maintained a comfortable 13 to 17 percentage point lead over Fraser in the five polls conducted to date by SurveyUSA on behalf KSTP, WDIO and KAAL. Most recently a poll conducted by Emerson College on behalf of The Hill, found Klobuchar currently leading Fraser by 10 percentage points, still well beyond the 3 point credibility interval associated with those findings.
In addition to asking voters their preference in a race between Klobuchar and Fraser, the two most recent polls also separately asked respondents who they would favor if the race were between Klobuchar and White. The KSTP, WDIO, KAAL / Survey USA poll found that 49 percent favored Klobuchar compared to 35 percent for White. Similarly, The Hill/Emerson College poll found Klobuchar leading that match up with 48 supporting her, versus 37 percent for White.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race as follows:
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Inside Elections: Solid Democrat
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Democrat
Incumbent job approval: Sen. Klobuchar has enjoyed strong job approval ratings from Minnesota voters ever since she assumed office. The most recent KSTP/WDIO/KAAL poll done by Survey USA shows that 54 percent of Minnesota voters approve of Klobuchar’s job performance as senator, and 36 percent disapprove.
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
Congressional District 1
Background: In 2022 Republican Rep. Brad Finstad prevailed by 11.5 percentage points in an open race against DFL challenger Jeff Ettinger.
This year Finstad faces DFLer Rachel Bowman, who touts herself as a “Rochester native … a former local elected official on the Rochester Township Board … a former Assistant County Attorney … [and] most importantly, a mom.” In addition, two other Republicans — Gregory Goetzman and Shawn Tweten — have officially filed for the seat.
This southern Minnesota district — which includes regional centers Albert Lea, Mankato, Rochester (home of the Mayo Clinic) and Worthington — has been represented by a Republican since 2019 when the seat was vacated by current Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (DFL).
Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 1st Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, but just slightly more favorable for the DFL.
Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD1 as follows:
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Republican
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
Congressional District 2
Background: This district stretches south from just outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul down to Northfield — including all of Dakota, Le Suer and Scott counties and parts of Rice and Washington — remains a potential swing district.
Incumbent DFLer Angie Craig has now held the seat for three terms, after flipping the seat a successful challenge then-Republican Rep. Jason Lewis in 2018. In 2022, Craig was reelected by a 5 percentage point margin over Republican challenger Tyler Kistner.
Two Republicans are currently vying to challenge Craig: criminal defense attorney Tayler Rahm, who was officially endorsed by the district’s GOP in late April, and former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab, who filed to run in the upcoming August primary. In addition, two other candidates have officially filed to run for the seat; DFLer Marc Ives and Constitutional Conservative Thomas William Bowman.
Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 2nd Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, and moving just slightly more favorable for the DFL.
Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD2 as follows:
Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat
Inside Elections: Leans Democrat
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Leans Democrat
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
Congressional District 3
Background: DFL Rep. Dean Phillips has held this seat — which includes many of Minneapolis’s northern, western and southern suburbs — since flipping it from Republican Erik Paulsen in 2018. The seat is now open, since Phillips backed out to mount a now-discontinued run for president.
Despite the fact that Phillips was reelected by a 19 percentage point margin in 2022, Republicans are hoping to reclaim the district. Tad Jude, a former Democrat who served in the Minnesota Legislature and later as a county commissioner and judge, was endorsed by the district’s GOP in late April. State Sen. Kelly Morrison, a physician, is the DFL’s candidate.
Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 3rd Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, and moving just slightly more favorable for the DFL.
Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD3 as follows:
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Inside Elections: Solid Democrat
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Democrat
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
Congressional District 4
Background: The 4th Congressional District, which includes St. Paul and its suburbs to the north and east, has been held by DFL Rep. Betty McCollum since 2001. That makes her the longest-serving member of the state’s federal delegation. In 2022, she prevailed over Republican challenger May Lor Xiong by 35 percentage points.
Xiong as well as fellow Republican Gene Rechtzigel have officially filed to challenging McCollum for the seat.
Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 4rth Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a strong DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns.
Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD4 as follows:
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Inside Elections: Solid Democrat
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Democrat
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
Congressional District 5
Background: Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, which includes Minneapolis and its immediate western suburbs, has been held by DFLer Ilhan Omar since 2018. She became the first refugee, first Somali-American and, along with Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, first Muslim woman elected to Congress.
In 2022, Omar prevailed in the general election by 50 percentage points. In this heavily DFL-leaning district she faced a more challenging threat in the 2022 primaries from former Minneapolis city council member Don Samuels, winning by only 2 percentage points.
Samuels is challenging Omar in the DFL primaries again this year. In addition, two other DFL candidates — Abena A. McKenzie and Nate Schluter — have officially filed for the seat. Iraq-born journalist and activist Dalia al-Aqidi is the Republican challenger.
Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 5th Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, but remained the state’s strongest DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns.
Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD5 as follows:
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Inside Elections: Solid Democrat
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Democrat
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
Congressional District 6
Background: Central Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District — which include Twin Cities’ western and northern exurbs and St. Cloud — has been held by Republican Tom Emmer since 2015. In 2022, Emmer prevailed over DFL challenger Jeanne Hendricks by 44 percentage points.
Hendricks, “a nurse anesthetist, mom of two adult children, and community activist” won the DFL endorsement in May. In addition, Austin Winkelman, who is currently pursing undergraduate studies in business, formally filed his candidacy as a DFL candidate for the seat. Republican Chris Corey has also officially filed as a candidate for the seat.
Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 6th Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, but just slightly more favorable for the DFL.
Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD6 as follows:
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Republican
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
Congressional District 7
Background: Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District, which includes much of the rural western third of the state, was flipped from long-time DFL Rep. Colin Peterson by Republican Michelle Fischbach in 2020. Even before Fischbach won the seat, the district leaned right, voting for President Trump by a wide margin in 2016.
In 2022 Fischbach was reelected with a 39 percentage point margin. She faces a primary challenge from businessman Stephen Boyd. Neither was endorsed at the spring GOP district convention.
AJ Peters, a scientist, business owner and educator, is the DFL’s endorsed candidate for the district. Republican Steve Boyd has also officially filed to run for the seat.
Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 7th Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining the state’s strongest Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, and leaning slightly more favorable for the GOP.
Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD7 as follows:
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Republican
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
Congressional District 8
Background: Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District extends from northeastern mining towns to include Duluth to the east and the northern Twin Cities exurbs to the south. In 2018, Republican Pete Stauber successfully flipped this long-time DFL stronghold in a 6 percentage point open-seat victory over DFLer Joe Radinovich.
Stauber has successfully defended the seat in the two elections since then, including a 14-point victory over DFL challenger Jen Schultz in 2022.
Schultz, a former state legislator, is challenging Stauber again this year. In addition, DFLer John Munter and Harry Welty have officially filed as candidates for the seat.
Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 8th Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, but just slightly more favorable for the DFL.
Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.
Election forecasts: As of July 3, leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD8 as follows:
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): Safe Republican
Jump to: President | Senate | CD1 | CD2 | CD3
Curious about Minnesota’s state legislative races? For a detailed look at the 2022 election outcomes see: https://www.apmresearchlab.org/mn-house-senate-election-2022