COVID-19 on the rise in Minnesota
Overall activity remains low, but latest data are trending in the wrong direction
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Over the most recent four-week period the number of new admissions to Minnesota hospitals with COVID-19 increased by 55 percent, following drops in seven consecutive prior four-week periods.
While the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations — 255 in the four weeks ending Aug. 3, according to data released yesterday by the Minnesota Department of Health — remains among the lowest in the pandemic, the uptick warrants vigilance.
The latest hospitalization data mirrors trends in the amount of COVID-19 detected in the state’s wastewater sampling efforts. Friday the Metropolitan Council reported yet another increase in COVID-19 RNA load detected in the week ending Aug. 6: 31 percent, or 14 percent if using an average that excludes one abnormally high reading in this week’s data. This follows increases of 12 and 54 percent in the two prior weeks.
The latest data from University of Minnesota Medical School’s parallel wastewater monitoring effort is showing weekly increases in three of the seven regions it monitors across the state as of July 26. The four-week increases are particularly notable in both South West, which stabilized in the most recent week, and South West, which continued to increase in the most recent week.
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Like the hospitalization data, however, recent increases in COVID-19 levels measured in wastewater remain low relative to earlier in the pandemic. For example, current levels are at least 88 percent less than levels measured in each region except the study’s South East region, which is 73 percent lower.
According to University of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm it is too soon to call these recent increases a surge, especially given the still low levels of activity and continued uncertainty over the COVID-19’s trajectory in weeks to come.
In his most recent podcast Osterholm notes that while the newer EG.5 subvariant continues to gain ground, the World Health Organization recently noted that, “the public health risk posed by EG.6 is evaluated as low.” Past waves of COVID-19 were driven by newer strains that were more virulent than appears to be the case with EG.5.
While even relatively small increases in the COVID-19 are unwelcome as the calendar approaches the gathering points like the State Fair and a new school year, it is worth noting that one year ago at this time the state was averaging 74 daily hospital admissions with COVID-19, compared to a daily average of 9 in the most recent week.