Minnesota largely left out of Midwest snowstorm with more mild temperatures on the horizon

CATHY WURZER: Seems the entire upper Midwest has been dumped on with snow, except for much of Minnesota. And we're heading into a warming trend. Here to talk about what all this means is MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey, welcome back.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, good to talk with you, Cathy, as always. Happy winter, at least for a while anyway, huh?

CATHY WURZER: I know, right? Exactly. I am so surprised to see that we've had the latest ice in dates on record for Minnesota lakes. I mean, I guess I shouldn't be surprised, given this winter. How late is ice in this year?

PAUL HUTTNER: It's really late. Warmest December on record, of course, the key to that, Cathy. And we are seeing those latest dates. Most lakes are about two weeks later than the record, OK, because we've got a lot of record late ice in dates.

Quick example, Waconia, Southwest Twin Cities, latest in 80 years of records. It's five weeks later than average. It froze on January 4th, and the previous record was December 21st, so two weeks past the previous record. Harriet, Minnetonka, most of the lakes central and southern Minnesota are record late ice in this year and a symptom of our actually mildest winter on record, which is remarkable that I found out yesterday.

CATHY WURZER: Wow, OK. So by the way, pretty pictures of the sundogs, and of course, the sea smoke on Lake Superior. Some kind of nice Arctic temperature weather phenomenon to talk about.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, and finally, when we get the cold air in, it's interesting because January 6 is really when I say winter started because it's the first time we've been consistently below freezing in the Twin Cities, right? So really, winter's only been going for about 10 days, and we finally got this shot of Arctic air. And there's been some great photos coming in of sundogs, that sunlight refracted through ice crystals in the atmosphere.

Also that Arctic sea smoke, Lake Superior, and just really cool on Lake Michigan. Cathy, that happens when the still relatively warmer waters of the Great Lakes, like Superior, that cold Arctic air blows over it, it gives up heat into that Arctic air, and it produces that steam fog. And that's what the mariners would call Arctic sea smoke. That happens in the world's coldest oceans.

And interesting to note, too, just to circle back, Cathy, because the Midwest Regional Climate Center-- they're a group in Indiana at Purdue University-- they keep track of the winter season severity index. They give points for cold. They give points for snow. And when you add it up so far this winter, Cathy, this is the mildest winter on record so far for the Twin Cities, Duluth, International Falls, Austin, Winnebago, Minnesota, many locations.

Just to give you a gauge, the points they've given us so far this winter are 198 for the Twin Cities. Compare that to 658 last year. So we're on track, even into this week, mildest winter on record. Yes, we've got the cold air for a few more days, but it looks like it's going to warm up again next week. This is going to be very interesting to see where we are come February if we're still in the mildest winter on record. We'll probably get another shot of subzero air in February. But boy, it's been just way off the charts this year.

CATHY WURZER: So getting back to this warming trend here next week with temperatures in the 30s, isn't it about this time of the year in January when we-- if everything's "normal," quote unquote, "normal," do we get a thaw at this point of the winter?

PAUL HUTTNER: It is typical because normally, this is the coldest week of the year in Minnesota, right? And then, typically, we'll get some Pacific air in here toward the third or fourth week in January, and that's typically our January thaw. This one will be a doozy. Of course, it's aided by this El Niño, right, which is driving this warmer winter, along with climate change. And it looks like we're going to be in the 30s most of next week.

I just looked at some of the new model runs today. 37 to 40, Cathy, in the Twin Cities potentially by next Wednesday through Friday. And this thaw could last through next week into the following week. It looks like maybe more snow the end of January, 1st of February, and then colder air once again. But this could be an 8 or 9-day thaw. So we're just going to continue to push that winter index gradually lower, if you will.

CATHY WURZER: Oh, this is so, so not right, just in terms of how this is all shaking out. My gosh.

PAUL HUTTNER: Very un-Minnesota.

CATHY WURZER: I know, I know. And I do feel bad for those who've got businesses who rely on ice and snow, you know.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, and well, that's a great--

CATHY WURZER: Go ahead.

PAUL HUTTNER: --point because our culture and many of our businesses, our winter economy is based on cold and snow. So yeah, ask a resort owner on Mille Lacs if they like these warm winters.

CATHY WURZER: Well, say, we have just enough time to talk about the getting to green shows. The Climate Cast is, what, we're talking about are getting to green shows with that?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, great series, as you know, this week. Dan Kraker and Kirsti Marohn doing Getting to Green, talking about Minnesota's path to, well, we're plus or minus 50% carbon-free energy already, and how can we push that forward? So we're going to take kind of a best of from the shows they're doing this week and talk about that and highlight it on Climate Cast tomorrow on All Things Considered.

CATHY WURZER: All right, I hope you have a good day today.

PAUL HUTTNER: You, too. Thanks so much, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: We've been talking to MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, you can listen to Paul and Tom Crann Monday through Friday on All Things Considered here on MPR News in the afternoon 3:00 until 6:00. And also, when you want to get weather information anytime, you can check out the Updraft blog. It's updated several times throughout the day. Great information there on the weather. Of course, that's also at mprnews.org.