Battleground 2nd Congressional District will be wide open as Rep. Angie Craig launches Senate bid

Minnesota DFL Rep. Angie Craig on Tuesday became the third woman to enter the race for a U.S. Senate seat, which will be vacant when Sen. Tina Smith’s retires next year.

Craig’s candidacy also means the battleground 2nd Congressional District will be ripe for hopeful Democrats and Republicans to try and claim her U.S. House seat.

In 2016, Craig failed to beat Republican Jason Lewis in the district encompassing all of Dakota, Le Sueur and Scott counties and part of Rice and Washington counties. However, she flipped the district in the next election, bringing the region under a DFL banner for the first time since 2001.

In the Senate DFL contest, Craig joins Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former Senate Leader Melissa Lopez Franzen. Todd Rapp, DFL analyst and longtime MPR News commentator, joined host Cathy Wurzer on Morning Edition to parse the politics and predict what could be in store for Minnesota next year.

Turn Up Your Support

MPR News helps you turn down the noise and build shared understanding. Turn up your support for this public resource and keep trusted journalism accessible to all.

The following has been lightly edited for clarity and length. Listen to the full conversation by clicking the player button above.

Craig’s Senate bid isn’t a surprise, right?

No, I'm not surprised at all. When you look at an open seat for the U.S. Senate, one of the first places you look in terms of a farm team is the congressional candidates. They're well known in Washington. They have fundraising networks out there that are probably stronger than the people who would run coming out of a Minnesota office, and just generally speaking, they can get buzz pretty quickly around their campaign. So I'm not surprised to see her get in, nor am I surprised that it's a pretty important step in the decision-making on the DFL side as a who's going to be the candidate.

So we're potentially looking at this point at a three-way DFL primary. Is Craig automatically the frontrunner?

Well, and we don't know if it's going to be a primary yet. The DFL endorsement will occur first. Often, the DFL endorsement can push people out of races; they'll decide not to challenge the party apparatus, which is relatively strong when it comes to protecting their candidates. On the other hand, the Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has already indicated that she'll consider running in a primary if she doesn't get endorsed. So it may end up being three or more candidates ultimately running in a primary election anyway.

What are Craig’s strengths as a statewide candidate?

Well, the most important strength I think she has is that she turned a district which was a fairly safe Republican district just 10 years ago into a fairly safe Democratic district. John Klein won this district in 2014 by 17 points. As of the last election, Angie Craig won it by 13 points and basically wiped off the map any idea that Minnesota had a competitive congressional race. Her ability to do that will probably set her apart initially from the other candidates.

In addition, she was pretty strong in her statements about President Biden stepping aside and allowing other candidates to move forward in the presidential race. And I think for independent and maybe some swing voters, that's going to give her a unique level of credibility compared to others.

Having said that, a lot of this is just about getting the organization in place, starting to work the delegates, working hard to get that endorsement, and preparing yourself in case there's a primary. So I wouldn't say right now that she would be an overwhelming favorite, but she's going to be a strong candidate. Absolutely.

What are Craig’s weaknesses as a statewide candidate?

I think those types of weaknesses will get exposed over time, as opposed to anybody bringing it from the office they're in. I think that's true for former Sen. Lopez Franson. I think it's true for the lieutenant governor also.

The amount of attention that's placed on a U.S. Senate race, particularly an open seat likely to be a swing — and undoubtedly, one of the top five or six races in the country — we're going to see a level of national scrutiny that is probably going to define both the strengths and weaknesses of all of the candidates.

It will also be an expensive race, right?

I think a ton of money will be spent on this race. We could easily see that the starting point on this race is $30 million and perhaps a lot more.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee must be a bit disappointed that Craig wants to run for Senate, leaving her district. Will there be a stampede of candidates?

At this point, this is obviously pure speculation, but isn't that what the listeners want, right? Sixty-one percent of the people who live in this district are in Dakota County. And so I would begin by looking at Dakota County legislators and other officials for the first crop of candidates.

Now remember, state senators don't get a freebie this time around. If this had been an open seat in 2024, a state senator could run without threatening their seat, but they'd have to give up their seat if they're going to run this time. However, I'd still be looking on the Democratic side at State Sens. Matt Klein and Erin Maye-Quade as two possibilities. I'm certain Matt Little, who used to represent the Lakeville area and was also their mayor, is thinking about running, too.

I have a harder time speculating on the Republican side, just because a lot of their candidates haven't come out of the legislative branch. But one person I’d at least be looking at is Sen. Zach Duckworth of Lakeville. He's been a pretty strong legislator, very well respected. He might decide that this is at least worth a try to see if he can get a national office.