How do cuts at NOAA affect weather forecasting in Minnesota?
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The National Weather Service and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, have cut hundreds of jobs in the last month, and more layoffs could be coming.
Hundreds of NOAA employees were let go on Feb. 27 under a probationary worker elimination plan from the Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency. If another proposed round of cuts moves forward, NOAA could lose nearly 20 percent of its workforce, according to PBS.
Meanwhile, the severe weather season is ramping up, and with fewer federal employees comes less data that meteorologists nationwide — including the MPR weather team — rely on to keep people safe. Sven Sundgaard joined Morning Edition host Cathy Wurzer to talk in detail about what at NOAA is being reduced and the implications of the cuts.
Fewer weather balloon launches
Weather balloons remain a vital source of atmospheric data around the globe. Surface observations are ubiquitous; airports also monitor temperature, dew point and precipitation.
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“But that only gives us the two-dimensional view of the atmosphere,” Sundgaard said. “We need that three-dimensional view which gives us the vertical profile, and that's what weather balloons provide.”
Because of DOGE staff reductions, NOAA is eliminating or reducing balloon launches from twice daily to a single deployment at nearly a dozen locations. Omaha and North Platte, Nebraska; Rapid City and Aberdeen, South Dakota; Riverton, Wyoming; Grand Junction, Colorado; and Green Bay, Wisconsin are all on that list.
Right now, weather stations launch balloons at 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. Sometimes they launch a midday balloon if there's a severe weather threat.
“The forecast models, the mathematics, I always tell people, are perfect. The problem is the data,” Sundgaard said. “When you put in data with any little bit of errors… that little bit of error gets multiplied out with time through the computer models.”
Thus, fewer data points translate to less accurate forecasts.
Low-level radar gaps
Minnesota has several gaps in its low-level radar. That’s because the radar is sent out at a half-degree tilt in order to avoid trees, buildings and other obstructions. With distance, that beam gets higher and higher.
“So the Duluth radar, the Twin Cities radar, the Fargo radar, is reaching the Brainerd Lakes Area at thousands of feet above the ground. So we have no idea, based on radar, what's happening in the lower levels,” Sundgaard said. “When we're talking about forecasting tornadoes or straight line winds, if we don't really know what's going on in the lower levels, that's a big gap.”
More than 2 million Minnesotans live in such a gap. These radar dead spots are a known problem nationwide, but the NWS has been unable to address them alone because of cost constraints.
There is a funding bill to shore up those gaps that is making its way through the Minnesota Legislature right now, which encourages a private partnership to build and maintain radar stations and relies on data sharing. The Senate version was laid over for possible inclusion in an omnibus bill.
Can AI supplement staffing shortages?
“No,” Sundgaard said.
“AI is actually an increasingly important tool in all this, but it still requires good data,” he continued. “You're just shooting in the dark if you don't know exactly what's going on and the initial conditions.”
Is privatizing weather forecasting reasonable?
President Donald Trump has expressed support for privatizing weather forecasting and technology. Other administrations have posited moving NOAA from the Department of Commerce to another federal agency.
Minnesota Meteorologist Paul Douglas, who has founded several private weather businesses, has said that the private sector wouldn’t be able to replace the loss of government weather data and staff.
The Weather Service is the top-notch meteorologists, and there's consistency there,” Sundgaard said, and the offices work collaboratively. “Duluth and the Twin Cities aren't just doing their own thing. They coordinate on a regional level [about] when are we going to issue this warning, for who, and they come to a consensus.”
Sundgaard expressed concern that competing, private weather companies may not collaborate.
“And I don't think that's good when it's coming to the safety of the public's lives and property.”
The NWS’s Severe Weather Awareness Week begins Monday in Minnesota. Many counties in Wisconsin and Minnesota will activate outdoor warning sirens at 1:45 and 6:45 p.m. on Thursday, April 10.