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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

January super thaw could last 2 weeks

Highs in the 40s to 50 degrees possible

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast
Temperature forecast for noon on Feb. 1
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

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Welcome to Day 2 of what will likely be the January super thaw of 2024.

Temperatures have already risen above the freezing point in the Twin Cities as of this post early Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Temperatures Tuesday at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Federal Aviation Administration

This marks the second straight day above freezing, which meets the definition of a January thaw according to the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

By that definition, our current thaw is the second of this month. The Twin Cities also recorded highs above freezing on Jan. 2 and Jan. 3. You can read more about January thaws from my post Monday.

Long duration thaw ahead

All systems appear to be go for one of the longest January thaws on record in Minnesota. Our current thaw began on Jan. 22. Forecast models suggest it will likely continue through at least Feb. 6.

If the current thaw reaches 15 days, it will tie for the second longest January thaw on record.

January Thaws
January thaws in the Twin Cities
Minnesota State Climatology Office

Record highs possible

This may also be one of the warmest January thaws on record for parts of Minnesota.

Clouds will dominate our skies this week. That’s common in winter under milder, moisture-laden Pacific air masses.

Highs this week will gradually climb through the 30s.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA

Temperatures will push the 40-degree mark across parts of southern Minnesota by early next week. Some sunny breaks may help push temperatures even higher from this weekend into next week.

Forecast high temperatures Monday
Forecast high temperatures Monday
NOAA

Warm start to February

February arrives with near-records warmth this year. All major forecast models are cranking out highs in the 40s to possibly 50 degrees in some areas.

Below, watch the pulses of mild air build over Minnesota on this National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System temperature loop between Feb. 1 and Feb. 6.

NOAA GFS temperature output
Global Forecast System temperature output Feb. 1-6
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The loop above may be conservative. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model cranks out 50 degrees for the Twin Cities the first week of February.

So this looks likely to be one of the longest and warmest January-February thaws on record.

Pacific jet extension

So what’s driving our rare warm spell ahead? A super-long Pacific jet stream extension racing from Japan to California is the mechanism.

These jet extensions are typical of strong El Niño events. They steer powerful storms into the West Coast and push mild Pacific air across most of the United States.

It will be interesting to see how far this feature can push the duration and magnitude of our thaw this year.

Stay tuned.