Wintermission: One of the longest January thaws on record ahead

The temperatures at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport crept above freezing around 12:53 p.m. Monday. That’s the first time above freezing since Jan. 5 when we hit 35 degrees in the Twin Cities.

Welcome to what looks like it could be one of the longest January thaws on record for the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota.

Temperatures may hover near 32 degrees on Tuesday.

After that, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model suggests temperatures will rise above the thawing point for at least 10 days. That would tie for the sixth-longest January thaw on record in the Twin Cities.

Highs this week will gradually rise through the 30s across all of Minnesota. By this weekend temperatures could be above freezing statewide.

January thaw

A January thaw is a common feature of Minnesota midwinter weather. Keep in mind the average high and low for Minnesota remain below freezing all month. The average high and low for the Twin Cities on Jan. 22 are 23 and 8 degrees.

Here are some interesting data points for the January thaw in the Twin Cities:

• Defined as at least two straight days above with high temperatures above 32 degrees

• Occurs 94 percent of years in the Twin Cities

• 2024 is the 13th straight January thaw on record (2011 last year without)

• The longest January thaw was 18 days in 1944

The January thaw occurs when the upper air pattern shifts from northwest Arctic flow to more westerly Pacific airflow.

Here is more on the January thaw from the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

It's a scene familiar to most Minnesotans: after a period of deep cold during January, we experience a run of mild conditions, often pushing temperatures above freezing. Indeed, the famed "January Thaw" is a common creature of Minnesota's winter, especially in western and southern parts of the state.

A January Thaw is defined as two or more consecutive days with maximum temperatures above 32 degrees F. These thaw episodes are a regular part of Minnesota's climate, bringing a brief respite to a Minnesota winter. January Thaws are most common and often most dramatic in southwestern Minnesota, where the local topography can boost daytime temperatures above freezing with relative ease, and sometimes even above 60 F.  Although less extreme, January Thaws also occur most years throughout southern and western Minnesota.

In the Twin Cities, January Thaws occur 94% of the time. For comparison, a "White Christmas" in the Twin Cities (one inch or more of snow cover on Christmas Day) occurs about 72% of the time, meaning we are more likely to have a January Thaw than a White Christmas, and this is true in all but the northern third or so of the state.

With at least one January Thaw now recorded in 2022, the streak is currently 11 years and counting; the last winter without a January Thaw in the Twin Cities was 2011.

The longest January Thaw on record in the Twin Cites is 18 days, spanning January 13th through 30th of 1944. That run of warm weather included a reading of 58 degrees F on the 25th, which still stands as the warmest January day on record in Minneapolis.

January Thaws exhibit some interesting long-term behavior, especially given the unmistakable trends in recent winters. For instance, January is Minnesota's fastest-warming month, with temperatures across the state increasing by 8-10 degrees F between 1970 and 2021. Yet the frequency of January Thaw events remains largely unchanged, and the length of these events shows no sign of increasing.

Forecast: Mild well into next week

The overall upper-air pattern favors mild Pacific flow overall across much of the United States into the first days of February.

Monday’s 12Z European model run suggests temperatures in the 40s across southern Minnesota next Wednesday, Jan. 31, with 50s lurking upstream in South Dakota.

Stay tuned.