New Data: Fall warming 7 times faster than summer in Minnesota

This is not your grandfather's fall in Minnesota.

I received some new data today that puts the magnitude of Minnesota's fall climate shift into bigger picture perspective. The new data shows fall in Minnesota is warming 7 times faster than summer.

If you read this space or hear my daily weather chats on MPR News stations you know I've been tracking the records we're almost certain to break this fall for the latest freeze and longest growing season in the Twin Cities.

• 36 degrees - coldest observed temp so far this fall at MSP Airport

• 45 degrees - coldest forecast temp at MSP through November 8th

• November 7th - latest freeze (32F) on record at MSP Airport

2016: Rewriting Minnesota's record books

2016 is setting some remarkable record for warmth and wetness in Minnesota.

Kenny Blumenfeld from the Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group sent me this eye-opening data quantifying just how unusual our 2016 weather has been, and how rapidly the fall season is warming in Minnesota. (My highlights in bold text below.)

1) To date, and on a statewide basis, no year back to 1895 has been as warm and wet as this one. It is looking like we are a near lock to be in the top 10 for both temperature and precipitation. Combining the two in that way is quite unusual; no year this warm has been as wet, and no year this wet has been as warm.

2) The Twin Cities absolutely obliterated its record number of lows at or above 60F this year. It was not the typical “nudging” of the old record that we normally see. The previous record count was 91. The new record is 101. Milan (pronounced “My-len”), which has no urban heat island and a very long and reliable record, shattered its record for number of lows at or above 50 F. However you look at it, the mild weather season has been exceptionally long.

3) Even if we didn’t threaten or break the freeze-free records at MSP (and many stations in MN are nowhere near record territory), this year is still a dramatic example of the rapid changes we’ve been seeing in our fall climate, especially in the last 4-5 decades. Since 1970, Fall in Minnesota is warming more than two times faster than spring, and seven times faster than summer. Also, unlike other seasons, where the warming is driven largely by higher minimum temperatures, the warming during fall is across the board, affecting highs and lows nearly equally.

We’ll talk to you tomorrow AM!

Kenny

Kenny os our guest on MPR's Climate Cast Thursday morning at 10 am on MPR News stations. We'll talk about  our rapidly changing fall season in Minnesota.

Fits with climate change pattern

The rapid changes in our fall climate make sense in the bigger context of climate change. Greenhouse gasses are more efficient at re-radiating heat that is already in the atmosphere. It makes sense that the lingering heat of summer would take more residence time to dissipate in fall.

Forecast: Early November warmth persists into next week

All signs point to continued unseasonable warmth across Minnesota into next week. The short term maps show another warm front sailing north into Canada as mild high pressure builds in by Friday. We've seen this movie before, a rerun all fall long.

Temps the next several days run 10 to 20 degrees above average. The charts look more September than November. I still think we have a shot at 70 degrees from the Twin Cities south Friday and Saturday.

Warm November

Obviously we're off and running on the 15th straight warmer than average month for the Twin Cities and most of Minnesota. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center continues the trend of warmer than average temps into mid-month.

The second half of November should turn (much?) colder in theory. NOAA's 16-day GFS output still cranks out colder temps and at least some hint of the season's first snow flakes around November 16th. I'll believe it when I see it.

'Shockingly Warm' Arctic

It's not just Minnesota that's running warm this fall. Check out the unusually warm temps this week in the Arctic, where temps are running +20F to +36F vs. average.

Record low Arctic Sea ice

As you might expect from the map above. Arctic Sea ice is having a hard time forming, and is at record lows for this date in the year.

Older Arctic Sea ice vanishing

The rate of observed changes in the Arctic are dramatic and yes, alarming to many scientists. Older multi-year sea ice is vanishing.

Climate shifts continue to break new ground from Minnesota to the Arctic this fall. Join me for Climate Cast Thursday at 10 am on MPR News stations, 91.1 KNOW in the Twin Cities.