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Capitol View®
Catharine Richert

PoliGraph: Claims about the GOP budget

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As of last week, there’s a lot more certainty in how much Democrats in the state Senate and Republicans in the state House want to spend on specific programs.

They released their “budget targets,” but there’s a vast difference between the two proposals.

Republicans say their overall general fund target is roughly $39.9 billion over two years – a roughly 1.7 percent increase over the current budget.

House Minority Leader Paul Thissen says Republicans are using funny math.

“If you look at the real numbers, you’ll see the Republican budget math doesn’t add up,” Thissen, DFL-Minneapolis, said in a press conference responding to the GOP budget outline.

Depending on how you look at the numbers, the GOP budget proposal could be closer to $42.5 billion.

The Evidence

Thissen’s office sent a list of myriad reasons why he thinks the Republican budget has some holes.

The first reason is a matter of interpretation. House Republicans are measuring their 1.7 percent increase in spending from the current budget, not the budget forecast, which pegs general fund spending for fiscal year 2016 and 2017 at $41.1 billion over two years.

Forecasted spending accounts for factors like projected growth in program enrollment and population growth.

Thissen says starting with current spending as a base allows the Republicans to artificially inflate spending increases.

The argument Thissen is making is a perennial one. Democrats tend to use projected spending as their baseline, while Republicans look at current spending. Democrats say Republicans are actually cutting the budget, while Republicans can accuse the Democrats for living beyond the state’s means.

But matters of interpretation aside, Thissen points to other examples that show Republicans are spending more than they say.

  • Republicans want to use $228 million from the state’s general fund this year for road and bridge projects, and is accounted for in the GOP’s Ways & Means budget resolution. Thissen argues that’s additional GOP spending not included in the House’s two year budget.

  • Thissen points to $384 million Republicans are shifting from the general fund to road and bridge funding, which effectively shrinks the GOP budget (though the money will still be spent).

  • Then there is $319 million Republicans have left unspent, though Ways and Means Chair Jim Knoblach said could eventually be spent on other programs.

The Verdict

Thissen says Republicans are spending more than they say, but that statement is partly based on how Democrats interpret the budget. Typically, Democrats have used projected spending for the coming biennium to measure spending increases – and that’s a fair and accurate way to view changes in the state’s general fund spending.

Using those standards, the GOP budget spends more than $42 million, according to a non-partisan House Research document.

But it’s also fair to measure spending increases based on current spending, which is a tack Republicans often take. By GOP standards, their budget spends just under $40 million over two years.

That said, the GOP has been able to shrink their total spending proposal by shifting cash. And it’s not clear what Republicans will do with their leftover $319 million. If it’s used for additional programs or tax cuts, it would push the GOP’s spending totals up.

When you’re spending roughly $40 billion, there are lots of ways to add up the numbers. And that’s before you even consider that Democrats and Republicans want to spend even more on transportation, which is traditionally not counted in the state’s general fund budget.

Deciding that discretion is the better part of valor, PoliGraph is giving Thissen’s claim an inconclusive for now as we wait to see the outcome of the budget debate at the Capitol.