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Capitol View®
Catharine Richert

PoliGraph: Kaler’s doc shortage claim accurate

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Legislators in St. Paul want to put more health care professionals in parts of the state, and so does the University of Minnesota.

U of M President Eric Kaler has proposed more than $34 million to expand research and open clinics in underserved parts of the state as part of the school's $1.3 billion two-year budget. To bolster his case for the funding, Kaler said Minnesota's population is getting older but that there won't be enough doctors to treat them.

“By 2050, the number of Minnesotans 85 years and older will triple from its value now. At our current rate, we will not have a workforce capable of meeting the healthcare demands.”

Kaler's wording is imprecise, but his claim is fair.

The Evidence

According to the state demographer, the number of people 85 and older will increase from 107,000 in 2010 to 284,000 in 2050.

That's a roughly two-and-a-half increase, so Kaler isn't far off.

As for the number of doctors, there are a lot of estimates out there about how many doctors the state will have in the future.

None go as far out as 2050, but according to data from the Office of Rural Health and Primary Care in the Minnesota Department of Health, most of them project a shortage of anywhere between 850 and 2,000 primary care physicians by 2025. Other studies predict  a shortage of up to 4,000 doctors in all medical specialties.

The Verdict

Kaler's claim that Minnesota's elderly population will triple isn't quite right, but he is close based on figures from the demographer's office.

And while Kaler isn't specific about how many doctors the state will be short - or what type of physicians they are - most projections show the state's health care workforce will be stretched thin.

That’s close enough on this test for Kaler to earn an accurate rating.