What Sen. Tina Smith’s retirement means for Minnesota politics in 2026

[MUSIC PLAYING] NINA MOINI: Across the state today, another cold one, highs mostly in the single digits, sunshine, though, and light winds. Snow develops tomorrow during the midday Friday, into Friday night, bringing some more widespread accumulation for much of Eastern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin. I'm Nina Moini with these Minnesota news headlines. A Minnesota lawmaker wants to ban new billboard signs across the state. Kirsti Marohn reports.

KIRSTI MAROHN: State Senator John Marty says Minnesota has enough billboards. The DFLer from Roseville says the signs detract from the state's natural scenic beauty.

JOHN MARTY: When you look at all the marketing Minnesota does for tourism, you look at the TV commercials we provide, the online stuff to promote our state for tourism for other states-- beautiful pictures. None of them have any billboards in them.

KIRSTI MAROHN: Marty's bill would impose a moratorium on new billboards. Four other US states, Vermont, Maine, Alaska, and Hawaii, have similar laws. Representatives of billboard companies spoke against the bill at a Senate committee hearing. Mike Hylandsson is with Schubert and Hoey Outdoor Advertising of Minneapolis.

MIKE HYLANDSSON: Clearly, this bill is our death sentence. But what's worse is the negative impact for all the small businesses who we serve.

KIRSTI MAROHN: The committee didn't take action on the bill. I'm Kirsti Marohn.

NINA MOINI: The US Department of Education's Office for Civil Rights is opening an investigation into the Minnesota State High School League. Elizabeth Shockman reports.

ELIZABETH SHOCKMAN: The move from the federal government comes after the State High School League said it was reviewing state law to determine how it interacts with the recently issued executive order banning transgender athletes from participating in female sports. The Minnesota Human Rights Act and Equal Protection Clause of the State Constitution prohibit discrimination against persons based on sexual orientation and gender identity.

The State High School League says it is seeking guidance from the state attorney general on how to comply with the law. The league says its bylaws will remain unchanged, allowing transgender student athlete participation during the 60-day compliance period allowed under the executive order. I'm Elizabeth Schockman.

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NINA MOINI: Our top story this afternoon, US Senator Tina Smith is not running for reelection in 2026. The Democrat posted a video to social media this morning saying the decision is, quote, "not political, it's entirely personal." Smith joined the Senate in 2018 when then-Governer Mark Dayton appointed her to fill the seat Al Franken left when he resigned.

Just last week, on Politics Friday, Smith told MPR's Politics Editor Brian Bakst she was planning to run again. They sat down again today after her announcement.

BRIAN BAKST: Well, Senator, I guess plans change. What led you to revise your reelection intentions?

TINA SMITH: Well, I've been giving this a lot of thought for a lot of months. And at the end of the day, I really thought about how I want to spend the next 10 years of my life and what I want to be doing and concluded that I want to be able to be home in Minnesota more. And I want to be able to spend more time with my large and joyful and busy family.

BRIAN BAKST: You wrote that you kind of want to be more of a doting grandma, having the sleepovers, the cookouts, and field trip attendance. Has that been impossible given your role in the Senate?

TINA SMITH: Well, the thing about being in the Senate-- it's an incredible job. It's very demanding. When you're in Washington, you're away from home. And when you're at home, you're often on the road traveling and talking to people.

That's one of my great joys in the job. I said that I feel like being a Senator has been like being invited into Minnesota's living room. And I really feel that way about the job. And as a result, it means there's just less time for other stuff.

When I became a Senator, we didn't have any grandchildren at all, and now we have four of them. And they're all living in Minnesota, in the Twin Cities. So it will be a blessing to be able to spend more time with them.

BRIAN BAKST: Had you been leaning this way for a while, or was there something recent that led you to this conclusion?

TINA SMITH: I've been leaning this way for quite a while. And there was nothing that changed. People have been asking me today whether it might have been different if we'd won the election or if other things had happened in other ways and the political world. And the answer to that is no. That didn't have any impact on me.

Though, I will say it's not lost on me, of course, that this is an incredibly important time in our country and a very important time to be in the senate. And there is a certain amount of relief that I will be able to just focus on that for two years without the pressures of also running a campaign.

BRIAN BAKST: Well, people are going to wonder if you're shying from a fight. What do you want to say to them?

TINA SMITH: Well, I want to say that I'm all in on this fight. And the freedom that I will have to be able to be completely focused on the next two years and the work that we have ahead will be in part because I don't have to spend time working towards an election.

I also want to say that I feel very good about the depth of talent that we have in Minnesota. So I'm not one of those politicians who feels like I'm the indispensable person, and I'm the only one who can do that. And I'm actually excited about making room for new leaders to step into this role.

BRIAN BAKST: I know you said that politics weren't a primary concern. But were you concerned about your chances of winning next year?

TINA SMITH: I really wasn't concerned about that. I have felt confident that, if I were to run, I would win. I think, as you know, we haven't had a republican win a statewide election in Minnesota since, I think, Governor Pawlenty won in 2006. I want to not convey in any way that this is an-- like it's a layup or that this isn't going to require a lot of work.

I mean, any time I've been on the ballot in Minnesota, I've gone in feeling like my job was to earn every single vote. And that's certainly is always the case in elections. If you don't have that approach, then you're really messing up.

BRIAN BAKST: 2006 is also conveniently the last time that Minnesota had an open US Senate contest. How does that change things?

TINA SMITH: I think that it will create a lot of enthusiasm and excitement. I think that having new people stepping into this-- stepping into leadership, it gives people something to be interested in and something to be excited about. And you don't see politicians stepping away from jobs that often. And I think when we do, it creates the opportunity, rather-- I see it-- that's how I see it.

BRIAN BAKST: So you're 66, coming up on a birthday next month. Sorry to share that with the world. But that's not all that old in today's context. Is this goodbye--

TINA SMITH: I know it.

BRIAN BAKST: --to public office for good or just for now?

TINA SMITH: Well, I think it is not a goodbye to public service. What shape that might take going forward, I just can't-- I really haven't given a lot of thought to. As you say, it's not that common for people who are-- you know, I'm only-- what am I going to be? I guess I'm going to be 67. Is that right?

BRIAN BAKST: Mm-hmm.

TINA SMITH: [LAUGHS]

BRIAN BAKST: I did the math for you, yes.

TINA SMITH: After-- you know, when you when you get into the second half of your 60s, the individual years sort of somehow don't seem quite as important. But I'll tell you that I thought about this in terms of what I want to be doing in eight years, where I want to be in 10 years.

And I thought, you know, gosh, when I'm 74, 75, do I want to still be getting on that airplane every single day and flying back and-- every single week and flying back and forth? Or do I want to have a different life?

BRIAN BAKST: You have colleagues in your 90s, though-- in their 90s.

TINA SMITH: That is-- that's true. And while I am being careful to not comment on my colleagues who are in their 90s, I think that it would be a good thing if more people had more of a life outside of the Senate and were ready to pass the torch to the next generation. Somebody said to me today, you know, a lot of people say when they leave a job, that they're doing it because they want to spend more time with their family. And sometimes that's just BS. But for me, it actually is the case.

NINA MOINI: All right, that was Democratic US Senator Tina Smith talking with MPR Politics Editor Brian Bakst about her decision not to run for another term in 2026. This announcement was at 10:00 this morning. We're already getting announcements from potential candidates for her seat. So Brian is with me now in the studio to talk more about this. Thanks for being here, Brian. Another busy day for you.

BRIAN BAKST: It seems like one busy day after another.

NINA MOINI: So this must have been a surprise after the conversation that you had more recently had.

BRIAN BAKST: Well, she used the word "plan" last week. If she would have used the word "will," I would have been more surprised. But did you did you feel the sense of relief in her voice?

NINA MOINI: Yeah.

BRIAN BAKST: I mean, she was choked up in that video that they recorded earlier in the week of her saying that she wasn't going to do this. But she was really loose today. And she-- when she came into the interview, she was munching on a piece of pizza, a spicy pepperoni that a fellow Democratic Senator sent some pizzas over to her office. And she was just very laid back, like it's almost this sense of freedom came upon her.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, sometimes politicians are very different when they're not amidst running for re-election. So we're already hearing names being tossed around. But Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, about an hour ago, posted to her social media that she does intend to run for Tina Smith's seat. So who else could have an eye on this seat? What do you think about all those kind of rumors?

BRIAN BAKST: Yeah, she's the only one so far to put a full foot in. There's a lot of people who might dip a toe in today. The list of people who will be looking at this will be much, much longer than the list of people who will actually do it.

NINA MOINI: OK.

BRIAN BAKST: So we should probably go through the list of people who haven't closed the door to it or said that they might consider it or are being promoted as possible candidates. And they include Governor Tim Walz. Obviously, Governor Tim Walz and Peggy Flanagan-- you don't see both of them in the race. It would be hard to see that happening.

Steve Simon, the secretary of state, could do it. You have the mayors of Minneapolis and Saint Paul. Mayor Melvin Carter, he's been on the national stage from time to time and is a good speaker. And then you have the members of Congress. Representative Angie Craig could do it. Representative Ilhan Omar said that she might do it, at least people on her behalf are putting her forward.

And then there are other folks who we might not be thinking about who are either outside of politics or who stepped away from politics for a time that that could decide that this is a golden opportunity. As I mentioned in that interview, these seats don't come open all that often. It's been since 2006 that Minnesota had a wide-open Senate race.

So you'll also see people, of course, on the Republican side. They were already looking at the race. You could see members of congress like Pete Stauber or Brad Finstad that they could try to trade up.

You could see Karin Housley, who ran against Tina Smith in 2018. She told our Clay Masters that she was still processing this news. It was quite fresh. Obviously, Tina Smith didn't share the news with a lot of people on the other side of the aisle. So they're just trying to get their head around it.

And then for republicans, they also look beyond politics. There are-- the business leaders could size it up. Or you could see someone from the likes of Michele Tafoya, who has thought about prior campaigns, the prominent TV broadcaster. She could do it. I mean, obviously, people are going to look at it. It's an expensive endeavor. And going forward is the real question.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, a lot of people right now are saying, I'm not saying no.

BRIAN BAKST: That's right.

NINA MOINI: But I mean, depending on who does run and who would fill that seat, there could be an effect on the open seats that then remain at the state level and the federal level. So what do you see as being the impact here?

BRIAN BAKST: Absolutely. We could be in for a really big shuffle, right? I mean, if you look at it, Democrats hold all the statewide offices right now. So if you're somebody who is looking to break in, you really don't have anywhere to go. But if, say, for instance, Tim Walz or Peggy Flanagan move on, that opens up an avenue for somebody else to climb up.

Or on the Republican side, people who may be looking at running for governor could say, this one seems like a better opportunity for me because there's going to be a lot more reinforcements from the outside. I mean, already the top Republican in the US Senate campaign, Tim Scott of South Carolina, said, Minnesota is in play, and we play to win. So they're signaling that an open seat is one that they might invest in, in a way that they maybe wouldn't have if there was an incumbent on the ballot.

NINA MOINI: And before I let you go, Brian, was there anything else the senator told you this morning that stood out to you?

BRIAN BAKST: Just that she said she was confident that she still could have won and that-- and she really stressed that it wasn't a political decision. And again, as she said, a lot of times we hear that from politicians. But she does have four grandchildren who are now living back in Minnesota. And she really can't wait to spend more time with them. She doesn't need the job for the money. She comes from a very fortunate family. And so she is really looking forward to having kind of grandma time.

NINA MOINI: All right, well, thank you for following this. We know you'll stay on it, Brian.

BRIAN BAKST: All right, Nina.

NINA MOINI: Brian Bakst is MPR's politics editor.