Republican and Democratic strategists analyze Minnesota‘s primary results

CATHY WURZER: It's Minnesota Now on MPR News. I'm Cathy Wurzer. Special edition, it's the primary-- well, the day after the primary election edition. Brian Bakst is with us. He's NPR's politics editor. We're going to bring in some analysis right now, get a bit of a wider lens on what happened. So we're going to call on two pros. Amy Koch is a former State Senate Majority Leader, current Republican political strategist. Jeff Hayden is a former DFL State Senator and currently a senior government relations strategist for Fredrikson Law. Senators, welcome.

JEFF HAYDEN: Hey, good afternoon.

AMY KOCH: Hello, Cathy. How are you?

CATHY WURZER: I am great. I know you guys were probably pretty busy last night, so was Brian. So thanks for taking the time to talk with us here this afternoon. Well, here's an understatement. What a crazy election year, right? Things have happened that no one could see coming. The dynamics have shifted several times already. So Senator Koch, what did last night's results tell us, do you think about, where things are standing in Minnesota?

AMY KOCH: Well, last night was maybe one of the more normal nights that we've had in this election season. So I think that largely, it was a win for incumbents. There were some challenges, some notable challenges, Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, Congresswoman Michelle Fischbach, seated incumbents that were challenged that really pretty handily beat their opponents, so no surprise there.

You just had Joe Teirab on. He's fantastic and is going to-- I think, going to be-- that CD2 is going to be the race to watch here. That was a little weird because Tayler Rahm had dropped out but maybe kind of, not really. But Joe bested that handily as well. So not a lot of surprises, there were a couple state rep-- statehouse races that were very close. There were some challengers to some incumbents, Greg Davids, Jeff Backer, Brian Johnson. And Representative Brian Johnson was the only seated incumbent to lose his-- at least on the Republican side, his primary. I don't believe anybody on the Democrat side did. But there were three or four other state rep-- seated members that held on through the primary process.

So that was just another side, but mostly for the-- kind of mostly status quo--

BRIAN BAKST: And, Senator Hayden, right there in your own backyard in Minneapolis, Representative Ilhan Omar, she seemed intent on putting doubts about her political strength to rest. Did her primary showing do that?

JEFF HAYDEN: I think that it did. I know that she really campaigned very hard. She spent a good amount of money. She was in the district. She moved her district office right in the heart of South Minneapolis, in my old district, at the Sabathani Community Center, I think, to be kind of close to her base and close to the people that she cares most about. And her team went out there. And they had a multipronged strategy of working with community, getting the energy, if you will, of what's going on with Democrats, as well as she was really strong. And she was up on TV or up in the media beyond digital media, broadcast media pretty early in this campaign.

BRIAN BAKST: And Senator Hayden staying with you, just looking up the ticket, how do you think, or how would you advise Senator Amy Klobuchar to approach this race with now Republican nominee Royce White for the US Senate?

JEFF HAYDEN: I think that Royce's record and track record speaks for itself. And so, much like how Vice President Harris is talking about her work as a former prosecutor and she understands these characteristics that she laid out about former President Trump, I think Senator Klobuchar is kind of doing the same thing. I don't even know if she gives it a whole lot of energy. But if you look at Royce's background and the things that we do know about him, he's a pretty unattractive candidate. And I think it speaks for itself.

CATHY WURZER: Well, Senator Koch, to that point, Royce White, he's controversial. He's blunt. He's brash. What kind of race do you think he's going to try to run against. Klobuchar?

AMY KOCH: I think it's going to be largely what he's been doing, which is a lot of social media and the shock and awe that, frankly, I think people are pretty tired of. He did come through the primary, but not a huge victory. And frankly, there's-- he's just-- it's a tough-- there's a lot of problems with the candidate.

And I think Republicans-- here's what I'll say to my Republicans, who have not won a statewide race since Governor Pawlenty. We need to start getting serious about our statewide candidates. We need to start picking people not because I don't-- I'm not even sure-- not because they say things that are outrageous but because they are willing to work hard and have the ability to win an election. And if you're not-- because if you're not winning, you're not doing anything. So that's for the Republican friends because Royce White will not win this. It's a tough race against Amy anyway, with-- or against Senator Klobuchar anyway. But we can win statewide.

BRIAN BAKST: But will his candidacy have any bearing on how other Republicans in the state fare, or might you want them to keep their distance?

AMY KOCH: [EXASPERATED SIGH]

Well, for sure, I think they'll keep their distance. And I think it's actually-- he's got such a record and has said so many outrageous things, that I think that it's not a big deal for other Republicans to say, well, that's that race. I'm not about it. However, ideally, you'd like someone top of the ticket to drive turnout. I do think that the presidential race is going to accomplish that enough. So the Senate race is kind of a side-- is a sideline.

CATHY WURZER: Hey, speaking of Senate, let's talk about the State Senate. That race in district-- what-- 45, in the West Metro, pretty interesting. We talked earlier this morning to the DFL former senator who won her primary, Ann Johnson Stewart. She's going to run against second time Republican candidate Kathleen Fowke. Senator Hayden, that could decide control of the State Senate. How do you handicap that race?

JEFF HAYDEN: Yeah, I know former Senator Ann Johnson Stewart. She's energetic. She was a talker on the floor. She's got a strong background in infrastructure as a civil engineer. I can't say that I know her opponent very well, other than Senator Morrison beat her handily. The race probably will tighten up a little bit. I think that it is-- Senator Koch will probably weigh in on this as a place that Republicans used to win, going back to Paul Anderson and before that. So I think it's a place that Republicans are going to really test the water.

The stakes are really high. And if, for some reason, Democrats didn't win that, then it would change the balance of the Minnesota Senate. I do, though, think that, especially based on the issues at the top of the ticket, Governor Walz, women's reproductive health, former Senator Ann Johnson Stewart's understanding of the district, I think she'll prevail. But it's not something-- it's something that we should watch, I guess I'll say that.

CATHY WURZER: I mean, Brian has said-- you've said this district is kind of swingy in terms of how it goes back and forth. I mean, this is not a slam dunk, right, for DFLers, Senator Koch?

AMY KOCH: It's not a slam dunk. Kathleen Fowke is a second time on the ballot, so she's got decent name ID. She raises money. She fits the district. Also, Senator Ann Johnson Stewart is going to put up a fight. So it's one to watch. It's also going to be a lot of money dumped because control of the state Senate runs through that district.

BRIAN BAKST: Yes, so--

AMY KOCH: And it is-- there's one House rep that's Republican and one that's Democrat. It's literally a divided district when it comes to the House seats.

BRIAN BAKST: And so if you're one of these outside groups who are looking at whether to invest in the statehouse, where you've got to pick up four seats, or you invest in, potentially, one monumental shift race in the Senate, where do you put those dollars?

AMY KOCH: I mean, the answer is you've got to play both. You have to. But the House is incredibly close. Four seats in the House in a presidential is nothing. It was small, small flip. So you've got to put your money on both. Both sides have to-- both of these, the House and the Senate-- control of the House and the Senate is going to be the big thing I'm watching on election night. And that you've got to ply money in both places.

CATHY WURZER: And what do you think, Senator Hayden?

JEFF HAYDEN: Yeah, I would absolutely agree. I think if I was there, I would put money in both. I mean, as Amy said, there's four in the House. Brian, you said it's four in the House. You probably could spend a lot of money there. There's probably six or seven districts that you're really playing in. And then, of course, you're really focused in this West Metro Senate seat. So I think that, from a state legislator perspective, I think that you play in both of them.

BRIAN BAKST: You both have-- are no longer in the legislature, but you still spend a lot of time at the Capital, watch the place. If there is this churn in the legislature and say, for instance, Governor Walz becomes vice president, what might we see in terms of a makeover for 2025 at the statehouse?

AMY KOCH: Well, I think, first of all, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is going to have a big job. The transition is going to be very tight because, until Governor Walz steps down, he would not step down. So the transition is going to be very, very close. And it's a budget year. So she's going to have a quick turnaround on that. So I just think that it's going to be a year of-- I mean, it would be a lot of tumult. And then if you have changeover in either the House or the Senate, now you've got new chairs, new leadership, and all of those things.

So we, potentially, in the month of December-- end of November, December, could have just a real big upheaval at all levels of state government. The one level that was going to be steady was the governor. As I kept telling everyone, hey, don't worry about it. The governor is the governor, and he's got another two years. Never mind! You're wrong!

[LAUGHTER]

JEFF HAYDEN: Well, I'll also say that--

AMY KOCH: I take it back.

JEFF HAYDEN: I'll say that I think that you're right. I'm watching this kind of-- if Governor Walz does become the vice president and what the timing is and former President Trump and how he sues and that whole thing-- I think that affects the timing. If it's smooth and a smooth transition of power, then I think you could see things work well.

I will say in the governor's office, though, Lieutenant Governor Flanagan has been very active co-governing with Governor Walz. The stuff around the budget is happening now. Those commissioners and others in the office are already planning based on what they see in the November forecast. I think that that would be OK. I do watch a little bit, though, if, for some reason, there is a change, the timing between-- if the Democrats do maintain the Senate and Lieutenant Governor Flanagan ascends, that means the last presiding officer of the Senate, which is Bobby Joe Champion, if he ascends, based on what the law says, how do you quickly get a new special election to fulfill his seat?

If, for some reason the Republicans take over, what does that look like? Does Bobby Joe still aced? So there's a lot of moving parts in the Senate that's very technical. People are writing emails and memos about it. And nobody has really talked about it. And as Senator Champion would say-- he's a pretty good friend of mine-- says that he doesn't measure the draperies before he knows what office he's going to be in.

CATHY WURZER: Yeah, that seems smart.

AMY KOCH: I do--

[LAUGHTER]

Yeah, I do think it's helpful that Lieutenant Governor Flanagan has been so involved, probably the most involved Lieutenant Governor that we've had in the state as far as any history that I can remember, which will help. But also, she may want new commissioners. She may want new administration. It will now be a Flanagan administration. So a lot could change there.

CATHY WURZER: And 83 days left, so we'll see what happens, obviously. You two are great. Thank you for taking the time. We appreciate it.

JEFF HAYDEN: Thank you so much for having us, for for having me at least.

[LAUGHTER]

I don't know about Amy.

[LAUGHTER]

CATHY WURZER: Talk to you both.

AMY KOCH: I'm glad that we're both on.

CATHY WURZER: Thank you. Bye bye.

JEFF HAYDEN: Nice to talk to you guys too.

CATHY WURZER: Republican strategist Amy Koch and former DFL State Senator Jeff Hayden, both are former state senators, by the way.