Snow cover going fast in Minnesota amid warm weather
Wednesday is again very mild with filtered sun through high clouds.
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After a couple days of weather that actually felt like winter, we’re back to temperatures well above average across the state.
And where it snowed last week, the evidence is quickly fading into memory. What is going on?!
MPR’s Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner joins MPR News host Cathy Wurzer to fill us in.
Find detailed weather updates on MPR News’ Updraft blog.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
CATHY WURZER: After a couple of days of weather that actually felt like winter, we're going to go back to temperatures well above average across the state. And where it snowed last week, the evidence is quickly fading into memory. What the heck is going on? MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner joins us to talk about it. Well, it was nice while it lasted, that snow.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. It was pretty.
CATHY WURZER: It was pretty. Yeah. So how close are-- I think we're really close to wrapping up meteorological winter, right?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes.
CATHY WURZER: I'm assuming we're going to break all kinds of records.
PAUL HUTTNER: We are. It's off the charts, Cathy, a broken winter this year. This is like Tulsa. We've been running 13 to 14 degrees warmer than average this meteorological winter, which began December 1. And climatologically speaking, that's about the winter in Tulsa, Oklahoma. So welcome to Tulsa this winter.
Temperatures 13, 14 degrees warmer than average, and the Midwest Regional Climate Center keeps track of the numbers. And they have this gauge called the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index. It assigns points for cold and snow. And in an average winter, we would have 930 points in the Twin Cities by now. We have 330 this year. It's by far the lowest on record. Last year we had 1,039, just for a gauge, some perspective.
And really, most of Minnesota is now and will come in with the number one warmest rank for winter this season. Parts of Southwest Minnesota might come in second place. And it looks like we're going to stay mainly 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average through the end of February, which ends, of course, the end of next week.
We're already 46 in the Twin Cities. We could hit 50 today. We may hit 50s again next week. I feel for the resorts, Cathy, up north that depend on that winter business this year. I guess if you're a snow plower that gets paid by the season, you're feeling pretty good. What do we say? There's really no bad weather, different kinds of good weather. But people are being impacted by this winter.
CATHY WURZER: I don't mean to disrespect Tulsa or Oklahoma. They're fine places. But--
PAUL HUTTNER: Sure.
CATHY WURZER: --we're Minnesota. So we just-- guh. Yeah. I'm wondering-- now, the rest of this week and into the weekend, we're just going to keep getting-- we have a little bit of a dip on Friday, I understand. But we go into, what, 50s and even next week 60s. Is that right?
PAUL HUTTNER: Maybe, yes. You nailed the trend. We're at 46 right now in the Twin Cities. I think we'll hit 50 today. Tomorrow, a little cooler, 45. 33, that dip you talked about, comes Friday with a bit of a cool front. And then we warm right back up again, Cathy. Southwest winds kick in Saturday, Sunday. 47 Saturday in the Twin Cities, 50 or close to it on Sunday.
And it looks like we'll be in the 50s Monday and Tuesday before another cold front comes through later next week. So maybe the last two days of February, a little cooler. But I'm looking at the models into the first week of March. And they're saying maybe 50s, maybe 60 then. So we're going to close out this winter. We're already far enough ahead that this will end up as the warmest winter on record.
CATHY WURZER: You know what really worries me? The dryness, right? We went into the season kind of droughty. And we just haven't had the snow. So I'm concerned about another flash drought. Should I be?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I think so. The soils are already drier than average in Southeast Minnesota and through much of the Midwest-- Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana. If we don't get a rainy spring or at least average precipitation through the spring, we could go back into flash drought. We've done that the last three years, as you know, Cathy.
We need those regular rains. And I'm not only worried about the soils for farmers. I'm worried about the fire danger, especially later this spring as we get into summer. Grass fire in the spring and forest fires later in the summer. So it's part joy and dread, I guess, that we get hopefully a nice spring this year. But we really need that moisture to keep the soils wet as we head into the planting season.
CATHY WURZER: Just a little heads up. I don't know if you heard this. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, the CBC, had a fascinating story about the Canadian wildfires, which caused all the smoke that really bedeviled us last year. Those wildfires have been just smoldering. They've not gone out. And so they're worried about what will happen. Because they, too, haven't had a whole lot of moisture.
I have about a minute left. Say, before we go, we should probably talk about the Climate Cast. What's going on this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, climate scientist Michael Mann-- he's a famous climate scientist. He sued some conservative bloggers who he claimed defamed him. And he won the suit, a million dollar lawsuit judgment. It has implications potentially for how people can criticize climate scientists. So we'll talk about that on Climate Cast tomorrow.
CATHY WURZER: Interesting as always. OK, I hope you have a good day today.
PAUL HUTTNER: You too. Great to talk with you, Cathy. Thanks.
CATHY WURZER: As always as it's great to talk with you too. Chief meteorologist Paul Huttner has been with us. By the way, you can hear Climate Cast Thursday afternoons on All Things Considered. And always you can find detailed weather updates on the Updraft blog. That's at MPRnews.org.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. It was pretty.
CATHY WURZER: It was pretty. Yeah. So how close are-- I think we're really close to wrapping up meteorological winter, right?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes.
CATHY WURZER: I'm assuming we're going to break all kinds of records.
PAUL HUTTNER: We are. It's off the charts, Cathy, a broken winter this year. This is like Tulsa. We've been running 13 to 14 degrees warmer than average this meteorological winter, which began December 1. And climatologically speaking, that's about the winter in Tulsa, Oklahoma. So welcome to Tulsa this winter.
Temperatures 13, 14 degrees warmer than average, and the Midwest Regional Climate Center keeps track of the numbers. And they have this gauge called the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index. It assigns points for cold and snow. And in an average winter, we would have 930 points in the Twin Cities by now. We have 330 this year. It's by far the lowest on record. Last year we had 1,039, just for a gauge, some perspective.
And really, most of Minnesota is now and will come in with the number one warmest rank for winter this season. Parts of Southwest Minnesota might come in second place. And it looks like we're going to stay mainly 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average through the end of February, which ends, of course, the end of next week.
We're already 46 in the Twin Cities. We could hit 50 today. We may hit 50s again next week. I feel for the resorts, Cathy, up north that depend on that winter business this year. I guess if you're a snow plower that gets paid by the season, you're feeling pretty good. What do we say? There's really no bad weather, different kinds of good weather. But people are being impacted by this winter.
CATHY WURZER: I don't mean to disrespect Tulsa or Oklahoma. They're fine places. But--
PAUL HUTTNER: Sure.
CATHY WURZER: --we're Minnesota. So we just-- guh. Yeah. I'm wondering-- now, the rest of this week and into the weekend, we're just going to keep getting-- we have a little bit of a dip on Friday, I understand. But we go into, what, 50s and even next week 60s. Is that right?
PAUL HUTTNER: Maybe, yes. You nailed the trend. We're at 46 right now in the Twin Cities. I think we'll hit 50 today. Tomorrow, a little cooler, 45. 33, that dip you talked about, comes Friday with a bit of a cool front. And then we warm right back up again, Cathy. Southwest winds kick in Saturday, Sunday. 47 Saturday in the Twin Cities, 50 or close to it on Sunday.
And it looks like we'll be in the 50s Monday and Tuesday before another cold front comes through later next week. So maybe the last two days of February, a little cooler. But I'm looking at the models into the first week of March. And they're saying maybe 50s, maybe 60 then. So we're going to close out this winter. We're already far enough ahead that this will end up as the warmest winter on record.
CATHY WURZER: You know what really worries me? The dryness, right? We went into the season kind of droughty. And we just haven't had the snow. So I'm concerned about another flash drought. Should I be?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I think so. The soils are already drier than average in Southeast Minnesota and through much of the Midwest-- Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana. If we don't get a rainy spring or at least average precipitation through the spring, we could go back into flash drought. We've done that the last three years, as you know, Cathy.
We need those regular rains. And I'm not only worried about the soils for farmers. I'm worried about the fire danger, especially later this spring as we get into summer. Grass fire in the spring and forest fires later in the summer. So it's part joy and dread, I guess, that we get hopefully a nice spring this year. But we really need that moisture to keep the soils wet as we head into the planting season.
CATHY WURZER: Just a little heads up. I don't know if you heard this. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, the CBC, had a fascinating story about the Canadian wildfires, which caused all the smoke that really bedeviled us last year. Those wildfires have been just smoldering. They've not gone out. And so they're worried about what will happen. Because they, too, haven't had a whole lot of moisture.
I have about a minute left. Say, before we go, we should probably talk about the Climate Cast. What's going on this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, climate scientist Michael Mann-- he's a famous climate scientist. He sued some conservative bloggers who he claimed defamed him. And he won the suit, a million dollar lawsuit judgment. It has implications potentially for how people can criticize climate scientists. So we'll talk about that on Climate Cast tomorrow.
CATHY WURZER: Interesting as always. OK, I hope you have a good day today.
PAUL HUTTNER: You too. Great to talk with you, Cathy. Thanks.
CATHY WURZER: As always as it's great to talk with you too. Chief meteorologist Paul Huttner has been with us. By the way, you can hear Climate Cast Thursday afternoons on All Things Considered. And always you can find detailed weather updates on the Updraft blog. That's at MPRnews.org.
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