Take off your long johns and put on your shorts: record highs possible Wednesday
Jan. 31 this year is more than one-hundred degrees hotter, with highs in the 50s.
Twin Cities National Weather Service
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Unreal warmth has been parked across the region with potentially record-setting temperatures Wednesday.
The last day of January looked very different five years ago, when a polar vortex dropped wind chills in parts of the state to about 60 below. Jan. 31 this year is more than one-hundred degrees hotter, with highs in the 50s.
MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner joins MPR News host Cathy Wurzer to talk about the record warmth.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
[UPBEAT MUSIC] CATHY WURZER: If you haven't already heard or looked at your weather app today, our top story is the unreal warmth that is parked across the region with potentially record-setting temperatures today, this January 31st. And the last day of January looked very different five years ago. Exactly five years ago, this is what we were hearing on MPR.
TOM CRANN: It is as cold as it's been in about 23 years here in Minnesota. We've had wind chill warnings up for the entire state. Our John Enger is in Bemidji. Wind chills this morning there were about 60 below.
CATHY WURZER: Yeah, I remember that. That's MPR's Tom Crann talking about the 2019 polar vortex. Today, we're looking at more than a 100-degree difference from that time with highs in the 50s today. Here to talk about the record warmth is MPR's chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner. I don't even know what to say anymore, truly.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY WURZER: [CHUCKLES]. So how do you describe this?
PAUL HUTTNER: I'm speechless. I describe it as winter is broken, Cathy. I mean, this is unreal, this January heat wave on the last day of January. And it's really kind of a meteorological triple whammy why this is happening. First of all, we've got this mild Pacific air that we've had most of the winter. Today, we've got the bright sun and bare ground. That's the third thing. So you combine those, temperatures soar once the Sun gets up. We've already broken the record today at Twin Cities Airport-- 47 degrees right now. That breaks the record of 46 set in 2000 and 1995.
It's 54 degrees in Madison and Appleton in Southwest Minnesota right now. They may hit 60 today with the Buffalo ridge turbocharging their warm-up. That downslope wind, it descends. It warms. And those towns can be much warmer than the surrounding areas, Cathy. And if you look at January, so far we're back to running about 5.2 degrees warmer than average. This looks like it'll be about the 15th warmest January on record. But it will beat that winter of 1877-78 that we're in a race with for the warmest winter on record, Cathy. So it's all going to come down to February, it looks like.
CATHY WURZER: Oh my gosh. In fact, I just saw our Brian Bakst-- he must be golfing today. Oak Marsh Golf Course in Oakdale is full today. All right, Brian. We know where you are. Anyway, let's talk a little bit about February because this is the last day of January. What are the long-range models showing when it comes to temperature and moisture, for that matter?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so we are going to be much warmer than average right through the first week of February-- about 20 degrees warmer than average. And Cathy, to catch that warmest winter on record, which was in those 1877-78 winter, we would need to be about the sixth warmest on record, 11 degrees warmer than normal. So we'll start 20 degrees warmer than normal for the first week. And then it looks like we're going to see a chance of winter, so to speak, by about next Thursday, Friday. Rain could change to snow. Temperatures falling through the 30s and then eventually 20s, maybe teens by mid-February.
So it looks like winter air will move this way. The question is, Will it stick around? Because it's those last two weeks of February that will be real critical to see whether we're going to have the warmest winter on record. Basically, we're either going to have the warmest winter on record or be very close this year. But at least some more winter-like temperatures by the end of next week and into the following week.
CATHY WURZER: Getting back to the winter in the 1800s that were trying to beat here that were looking like we might, do you remember, Was that almost like a winter that never was, too? Did they have much snow at that point?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I don't have snow stats. But it was called the year without a winter. And the Minnesota Climate Working Group has identified that as the warmest winter on record. Another really warm one was '97-'98. So we are right up there, Cathy, in the top two.
CATHY WURZER: And climate change--
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, and by the way, sorry-- the snow thing. 7.3 inches so far this winter in the Twin Cities. The least snow ever is 17.4 inches. So we still have to get more than 10 inches to work our way out of the least snowiest winter on record this year.
CATHY WURZER: Native Minnesotans, though, are still thinking that the other shoe will drop somewhere along the line. I mean, I don't know if it's April or May. Doesn't there almost have to be several storm systems still out there somewhere, you know? We've been getting April snowfalls pretty regularly, haven't we?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, you would think so. And we might pay for this in April. You know how that works. You're right. Look, here's the thing. Late February, March-- still very snowy periods in Minnesota. This could absolutely turn around and we could get a couple of big snow storms late February, March, and, as you note, even into early April. But we still have this super El Niño going on. And that's going to continue to push these Pacific winds in here from time to time, Cathy. So there are no guarantees. We'll just have to see what happens here during the next couple of months.
CATHY WURZER: Right. Hey, let's talk about Climate Cast. What are you going to talk about this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: So carbon capture-- it's a concept for trying to capture greenhouse gases from things like ethanol plants. There are proposed pipelines across the Midwest that could include part of Minnesota. We'll be talking about that technology and where we stand with regulations going forward here.
CATHY WURZER: OK. And before you go, what do you think the temperature will top out at in the Twin Cities?
PAUL HUTTNER: I've got 54. That's been my forecast for a couple of days here, and we're at 47 now. I think we've got a good chance of getting real close this afternoon, Cathy. Just the weirdest winter I've ever lived through.
CATHY WURZER: You're not going to golf, are you?
PAUL HUTTNER: I'm an avid golfer, but I'm not going to get out there today, no.
CATHY WURZER: Good. OK.
[LAUGHTER]
I was wondering if you had a tee time.
PAUL HUTTNER: I'll wait till April when it's real. Is it too late?
CATHY WURZER: There you go.
PAUL HUTTNER: Can I book one still? Yeah, right.
CATHY WURZER: All right. Thanks, Paul. We appreciate it.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: We've been talking to Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner.
TOM CRANN: It is as cold as it's been in about 23 years here in Minnesota. We've had wind chill warnings up for the entire state. Our John Enger is in Bemidji. Wind chills this morning there were about 60 below.
CATHY WURZER: Yeah, I remember that. That's MPR's Tom Crann talking about the 2019 polar vortex. Today, we're looking at more than a 100-degree difference from that time with highs in the 50s today. Here to talk about the record warmth is MPR's chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner. I don't even know what to say anymore, truly.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY WURZER: [CHUCKLES]. So how do you describe this?
PAUL HUTTNER: I'm speechless. I describe it as winter is broken, Cathy. I mean, this is unreal, this January heat wave on the last day of January. And it's really kind of a meteorological triple whammy why this is happening. First of all, we've got this mild Pacific air that we've had most of the winter. Today, we've got the bright sun and bare ground. That's the third thing. So you combine those, temperatures soar once the Sun gets up. We've already broken the record today at Twin Cities Airport-- 47 degrees right now. That breaks the record of 46 set in 2000 and 1995.
It's 54 degrees in Madison and Appleton in Southwest Minnesota right now. They may hit 60 today with the Buffalo ridge turbocharging their warm-up. That downslope wind, it descends. It warms. And those towns can be much warmer than the surrounding areas, Cathy. And if you look at January, so far we're back to running about 5.2 degrees warmer than average. This looks like it'll be about the 15th warmest January on record. But it will beat that winter of 1877-78 that we're in a race with for the warmest winter on record, Cathy. So it's all going to come down to February, it looks like.
CATHY WURZER: Oh my gosh. In fact, I just saw our Brian Bakst-- he must be golfing today. Oak Marsh Golf Course in Oakdale is full today. All right, Brian. We know where you are. Anyway, let's talk a little bit about February because this is the last day of January. What are the long-range models showing when it comes to temperature and moisture, for that matter?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so we are going to be much warmer than average right through the first week of February-- about 20 degrees warmer than average. And Cathy, to catch that warmest winter on record, which was in those 1877-78 winter, we would need to be about the sixth warmest on record, 11 degrees warmer than normal. So we'll start 20 degrees warmer than normal for the first week. And then it looks like we're going to see a chance of winter, so to speak, by about next Thursday, Friday. Rain could change to snow. Temperatures falling through the 30s and then eventually 20s, maybe teens by mid-February.
So it looks like winter air will move this way. The question is, Will it stick around? Because it's those last two weeks of February that will be real critical to see whether we're going to have the warmest winter on record. Basically, we're either going to have the warmest winter on record or be very close this year. But at least some more winter-like temperatures by the end of next week and into the following week.
CATHY WURZER: Getting back to the winter in the 1800s that were trying to beat here that were looking like we might, do you remember, Was that almost like a winter that never was, too? Did they have much snow at that point?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I don't have snow stats. But it was called the year without a winter. And the Minnesota Climate Working Group has identified that as the warmest winter on record. Another really warm one was '97-'98. So we are right up there, Cathy, in the top two.
CATHY WURZER: And climate change--
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, and by the way, sorry-- the snow thing. 7.3 inches so far this winter in the Twin Cities. The least snow ever is 17.4 inches. So we still have to get more than 10 inches to work our way out of the least snowiest winter on record this year.
CATHY WURZER: Native Minnesotans, though, are still thinking that the other shoe will drop somewhere along the line. I mean, I don't know if it's April or May. Doesn't there almost have to be several storm systems still out there somewhere, you know? We've been getting April snowfalls pretty regularly, haven't we?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, you would think so. And we might pay for this in April. You know how that works. You're right. Look, here's the thing. Late February, March-- still very snowy periods in Minnesota. This could absolutely turn around and we could get a couple of big snow storms late February, March, and, as you note, even into early April. But we still have this super El Niño going on. And that's going to continue to push these Pacific winds in here from time to time, Cathy. So there are no guarantees. We'll just have to see what happens here during the next couple of months.
CATHY WURZER: Right. Hey, let's talk about Climate Cast. What are you going to talk about this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: So carbon capture-- it's a concept for trying to capture greenhouse gases from things like ethanol plants. There are proposed pipelines across the Midwest that could include part of Minnesota. We'll be talking about that technology and where we stand with regulations going forward here.
CATHY WURZER: OK. And before you go, what do you think the temperature will top out at in the Twin Cities?
PAUL HUTTNER: I've got 54. That's been my forecast for a couple of days here, and we're at 47 now. I think we've got a good chance of getting real close this afternoon, Cathy. Just the weirdest winter I've ever lived through.
CATHY WURZER: You're not going to golf, are you?
PAUL HUTTNER: I'm an avid golfer, but I'm not going to get out there today, no.
CATHY WURZER: Good. OK.
[LAUGHTER]
I was wondering if you had a tee time.
PAUL HUTTNER: I'll wait till April when it's real. Is it too late?
CATHY WURZER: There you go.
PAUL HUTTNER: Can I book one still? Yeah, right.
CATHY WURZER: All right. Thanks, Paul. We appreciate it.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: We've been talking to Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner.
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