Uneasy or welcome: Minnesotans at odds with warm winter

CATHY WURZER: 12:29 here on Minnesota Now. You may have noticed, friends, we're at the start of a January supersized thaw. All that along with a pretty warm winter overall has made many of us feel kind of odd. Here to give us a little more context is MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy. Good afternoon to you. Yeah, winter weirding this year, right?

CATHY WURZER: I do feel uncomfortable, I have to say. And we're going to talk about that here in a few minutes. But I mean, this is when-- we always have a January thaw, or most often, always have a thaw, right?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.

CATHY WURZER: But this seems like it is really on steroids.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yep, and we do get the thaws more than 80% of the time in the Twin Cities. So this is pretty common. What's not common is the length of this, the duration of this thaw. I've been talking back and forth with Kenny Blumenfeld, who you know with the Minnesota State Climatologist Office. And he says the longest thaw ever January or any other month in winter that includes January was 21 days. So even if it starts in January, goes into February, in this case, December into January, 21 days the longest straight thaw that we've had. 18 days the longest within the month of January.

This one looks like it could last about 18 days. Of course, it started Monday. We're on day three now. It looks like the forecast models will run above freezing above the thawing point, at least in the Twin Cities, maybe as long as February 8 or so. So that would be about an 18-day thaw. So this is in the top couple of January thaws, it looks like, if it continues this way.

And we could even see some record highs, it looks like. But the forecast models, Cathy, are forecasting near 50 degrees by next weekend that first weekend in February. And that would be real close to records that weekend. So this is quite remarkable in terms of its duration and its magnitude.

CATHY WURZER: Wow. This must be, at least, or we're honing in on probably the warmest winter on record?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we're on pace to be top one or two. The warmest winter on record, 1887, '88, believe it or not. And it looks like we're going to be very close to that. So this is going to be the warmest winter for most of us that have lived in Minnesota during our lifetimes for sure. It all depends on how that last two weeks of February works out because it looks like the first two weeks are going to be much warmer than average.

CATHY WURZER: I do hear from folks who are just elated with the warm weather, you know? It's like, hey, this is great. We don't have to worry about ice and snow. Some of my older friends are not worried about falling on the ice and that kind of thing. But personally, I'm feeling really weird about this.

PAUL HUTTNER: And I'm hearing--

CATHY WURZER: And I know I'm hearing from other listeners, too. Yeah.

PAUL HUTTNER: Sorry, didn't mean to jump on you there. I am, too, hearing both of those sides of the story. I'm hearing from people who are just plain bummed out by this winter. Our identity in Minnesota, much of it is tied up to winter. And I was kind of thinking about the pros and the cons, right? You're right, a pro of a winter like this, it's easier to get around on the streets. There's less ice, less snow. We're paying less to heat our homes this winter. That's a good thing for most people.

But you look at the cons. Think of the resort business in Minnesota, the ice fishing folks, the snowmobiling folks that depend on snow and cold and ice. They're not having a very good winter. Also, our forests. You and I both talked to Lee Freilich many times. 40 below, that number that jumps out in northern Minnesota. If we hit 40 below, it kills a lot of the pests that can eat our forests. And that certainly is not happening so far this winter. So, yeah, it's a mixed bag, Cathy. I'm with you. This seems very, very odd, and I'm uncomfortable with this winter.

CATHY WURZER: Mm-hmm, right, exactly. As we look at the forecast, this morning was a little bit of a mess with the freezing fog that was not exactly attractive. Will we see more of that, given the forecast?

PAUL HUTTNER: We will because our daytime highs are going to be above freezing, but our overnight lows probably just at or below freezing. That's way above average, but it's cold enough so that that fog, that murk, can freeze on trees, on sidewalks, on the streets. So expect some potentially icy spots the next few mornings.

We will warm up gradually, as we go through the week. 35 already today, 36, 37 tomorrow, 39 by Friday. I think we'll be close to 40 degrees in the Twin Cities this weekend, because we're going to get some sun, especially on Saturday-- finally, a little bit of sunshine.

And then next week, Cathy, looks even warmer, another gush of Pacific air. There is this huge jet extension, we call it, across the Pacific Ocean, from Japan all the way to California. That's going to produce storms in California, but it's going to produce even milder air for Minnesota.

So we're going to climb through the 40s next week and maybe even 50 degrees by the time we get to that first weekend in February. The snow will be gone in and around the Twin Cities. There's still plenty of snow up north and in southern Minnesota in some areas, too. But wow, this is just unreal, as we head through the next 10 days.

CATHY WURZER: I'm kind of worried about the drought. I mean, the fact that we're going to melt all the snow that we have, whatever snow we have, and I'm hoping there's some snow on the horizon, at least.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we got a little lucky, right, in November, December because we got all that rain while the soils were still unfrozen. So some of that soaked in, but the lakes are still way below average in many spots. And you're right, we don't have that snowpack. It's going to be very critical. What happens in late February and in March? Do we get more cold? Do we get more snow? That may kind of tell the tale of where we set up for drought going into spring this year.

CATHY WURZER: And real quick, what's coming up on Climate Cast?

PAUL HUTTNER: Well, we know that 2023 was the warmest year on record globally. That means the last 10 years are the 10 warmest on record globally. That is just astounding. We're going to talk with one of the NOAA scientists who keeps track of those numbers, ask him what it all means. That's on Climate Cast tomorrow on All Things Considered.

CATHY WURZER: All right, my friend. Thank you. Have a good day.

PAUL HUTTNER: You, too. Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That's Paul Huttner. By the way, you can keep up to date with Minnesota weather. Follow the Updraft blog, and that is at mprnews.org.