After a weird start to the new year, what's next in the weather forecast?
The Twin Cities area forecast for the week.
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There’s no denying it: The start to 2024 has been pretty weird with very little snow across the state.
MPR News host Cathy Wurzer talks with MPR’s chief meteorologist Paul Huttner about when we can expect snow. And we look back at the top weather stories of 2023.
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Audio transcript
CATHY WURZER: There is no denying it, friends. The start to 2024 has been just weird. Very little snow across the state. It's been kind of warm. Here to talk about when we can expect some snow along with some of the leftover 2023 weather stories of note is Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey. Welcome back. And can I actually say Happy New Year? I haven't had a chance to say that.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Happy new weather year to you too. There we go, right. Another one. Amazing to see what will happen this year, Cathy. And it's interesting because the Minnesota Climate Working Group puts together a list of the top five weather stories every year. And for 2023, as you can imagine, record warmth was the story for Minnesota. But just pulling out globally for a minute, it was also the story there 2023 will go down as the hottest year on record globally. About 1.4 degrees warmer than the 20th century average. That's Celsius. NASA, NOAA, the European Union still crunching the final numbers, Cathy.
But in Minnesota, it was the third warmest year on record last year in the Twin Cities, fourth warmest in Saint Cloud, basically top three or four across the entire state. And it was really punctuated by that record warm September and December. As you know, December was off the charts. Warmest December on record by a long shot. Twin Cities, Saint Cloud, Rochester, International Falls, and anywhere from 12 to 15 degrees warmer than average. 12 in the Twin Cities. 15 up in northern Minnesota. Just remarkable how out of character December was.
And then you go through some of the other top five stories. Third snowiest winter on record. We remember that last year. 90 inches in the Twin Cities. 140 inches in Duluth. Snowiest winter ever there. The smoky skies from May and June. Do you remember those Canadian wildfires? We had just those incredible smoke plumes coming south. We hit 175 for the air quality index in the Twin Cities. That's the highest on record since 1980. And then flash drought and also a big snowstorm in the first part of January rounded out the top five weather stories last year, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: Wow. OK. So we had one of the snowiest winters on record last year. And now we have virtually nothing here this year. Do you see any winter weather in sight?
PAUL HUTTNER: I do. In fact, there's a big pattern change ahead starting next week. Now, we've already got a north wind today. It's in the teens in northern Minnesota. So that's a start, right, falling from the 30s and the Twin Cities. But by next week, it looks like we'll take a significant step colder. Highs closer to average. The average for the Twin Cities the middle of next week-- 23 for the high. We'll see highs mostly in the 20s next week.
And it looks like a much colder shot of air will come down late next week into next weekend. The medium range models saying maybe 20 below up in northern Minnesota. Maybe sliding just below zero in the Twin Cities. And there are chances for snow, Cathy. There's a little chance central-northern Minnesota this weekend, maybe 2 to 4 inches Brainerd through Duluth up through the Iron Range. Just a coating, I think, this weekend in the Twin Cities.
But forecast models saying anywhere from conservatively 2 to 6 inch of snow across the state next week, through next week. Could be heavier, especially in northern Minnesota. The point is once we get that snow, Cathy, even a couple of inches, it completely changes the temperature profile because it'll radiate that sunlight back out into space. So we'll be colder because of the snow cover next week.
CATHY WURZER: OK. And then once you start the snow machine going, can it keep going? I mean, once we get that little-- I know it's kind of maybe, what, a couple of inches perhaps for some of us, depending on where you are. Once you start that going, does that mean that the jet stream has changed enough where we will see maybe more snow?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, it's kind of the trend is your friend, right, because once you get even a couple of inches of snow cover, that can knock as much as 10 degrees right off the temperature there. So that keeps us below freezing. And any additional systems that come in are going to dump additional snow. So yes is the answer to your question. It can really start the trend.
And then we're into January, the coldest month of the year. So I really think we're going to see maybe snow accumulating over the next couple of weeks and temperatures responding accordingly. It's finally going to feel more like winter around here in the next two weeks and probably through the end of January, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: You just made some people very, very happy with that news. Say, Climate Cast for 2024, the first Climate Cast of the New Year, what we will be talking about.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. And we've seen these record temperatures. There's a meteorologist guy, Walton, who keeps track of record highs versus record lows around the country, around the world. And the last 10 years or so the number of record highs is almost three to one versus record lows. And in a balanced climate system, you would expect an equal number of record highs and record lows. Well, he's crunched those numbers. It's pretty interesting. So we'll talk to him on Climate Cast. That's tomorrow on All Things Considered.
CATHY WURZER: All right. Paul Huttner, thank you so much.
PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: We've been talking to NPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, of course, he is with Tom Crann on All Things Considered Monday through Friday. And also, you can check out the latest weather information on the Updraft blog. You can find that at nprnews.org.
Mixed precipitation in Hibbing right now. It's 18 degrees in Hib. In downtown Duluth, it's 25. Some flurries over the hill at the airport in Duluth, where it's 22. Flurries in Bemidji, where it's 17 degrees. Teens for the most part across northeastern Minnesota. A little bit of sunshine around Appleton right now, where it's 28 degrees. 34 in Winona. That's the hot spot.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Happy new weather year to you too. There we go, right. Another one. Amazing to see what will happen this year, Cathy. And it's interesting because the Minnesota Climate Working Group puts together a list of the top five weather stories every year. And for 2023, as you can imagine, record warmth was the story for Minnesota. But just pulling out globally for a minute, it was also the story there 2023 will go down as the hottest year on record globally. About 1.4 degrees warmer than the 20th century average. That's Celsius. NASA, NOAA, the European Union still crunching the final numbers, Cathy.
But in Minnesota, it was the third warmest year on record last year in the Twin Cities, fourth warmest in Saint Cloud, basically top three or four across the entire state. And it was really punctuated by that record warm September and December. As you know, December was off the charts. Warmest December on record by a long shot. Twin Cities, Saint Cloud, Rochester, International Falls, and anywhere from 12 to 15 degrees warmer than average. 12 in the Twin Cities. 15 up in northern Minnesota. Just remarkable how out of character December was.
And then you go through some of the other top five stories. Third snowiest winter on record. We remember that last year. 90 inches in the Twin Cities. 140 inches in Duluth. Snowiest winter ever there. The smoky skies from May and June. Do you remember those Canadian wildfires? We had just those incredible smoke plumes coming south. We hit 175 for the air quality index in the Twin Cities. That's the highest on record since 1980. And then flash drought and also a big snowstorm in the first part of January rounded out the top five weather stories last year, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: Wow. OK. So we had one of the snowiest winters on record last year. And now we have virtually nothing here this year. Do you see any winter weather in sight?
PAUL HUTTNER: I do. In fact, there's a big pattern change ahead starting next week. Now, we've already got a north wind today. It's in the teens in northern Minnesota. So that's a start, right, falling from the 30s and the Twin Cities. But by next week, it looks like we'll take a significant step colder. Highs closer to average. The average for the Twin Cities the middle of next week-- 23 for the high. We'll see highs mostly in the 20s next week.
And it looks like a much colder shot of air will come down late next week into next weekend. The medium range models saying maybe 20 below up in northern Minnesota. Maybe sliding just below zero in the Twin Cities. And there are chances for snow, Cathy. There's a little chance central-northern Minnesota this weekend, maybe 2 to 4 inches Brainerd through Duluth up through the Iron Range. Just a coating, I think, this weekend in the Twin Cities.
But forecast models saying anywhere from conservatively 2 to 6 inch of snow across the state next week, through next week. Could be heavier, especially in northern Minnesota. The point is once we get that snow, Cathy, even a couple of inches, it completely changes the temperature profile because it'll radiate that sunlight back out into space. So we'll be colder because of the snow cover next week.
CATHY WURZER: OK. And then once you start the snow machine going, can it keep going? I mean, once we get that little-- I know it's kind of maybe, what, a couple of inches perhaps for some of us, depending on where you are. Once you start that going, does that mean that the jet stream has changed enough where we will see maybe more snow?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, it's kind of the trend is your friend, right, because once you get even a couple of inches of snow cover, that can knock as much as 10 degrees right off the temperature there. So that keeps us below freezing. And any additional systems that come in are going to dump additional snow. So yes is the answer to your question. It can really start the trend.
And then we're into January, the coldest month of the year. So I really think we're going to see maybe snow accumulating over the next couple of weeks and temperatures responding accordingly. It's finally going to feel more like winter around here in the next two weeks and probably through the end of January, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: You just made some people very, very happy with that news. Say, Climate Cast for 2024, the first Climate Cast of the New Year, what we will be talking about.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. And we've seen these record temperatures. There's a meteorologist guy, Walton, who keeps track of record highs versus record lows around the country, around the world. And the last 10 years or so the number of record highs is almost three to one versus record lows. And in a balanced climate system, you would expect an equal number of record highs and record lows. Well, he's crunched those numbers. It's pretty interesting. So we'll talk to him on Climate Cast. That's tomorrow on All Things Considered.
CATHY WURZER: All right. Paul Huttner, thank you so much.
PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: We've been talking to NPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, of course, he is with Tom Crann on All Things Considered Monday through Friday. And also, you can check out the latest weather information on the Updraft blog. You can find that at nprnews.org.
Mixed precipitation in Hibbing right now. It's 18 degrees in Hib. In downtown Duluth, it's 25. Some flurries over the hill at the airport in Duluth, where it's 22. Flurries in Bemidji, where it's 17 degrees. Teens for the most part across northeastern Minnesota. A little bit of sunshine around Appleton right now, where it's 28 degrees. 34 in Winona. That's the hot spot.
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