Weather update: An upcoming unseasonably warm week and snowfall outlooks
Changing leaves are reflected in water along Cramer Road on Oct. 10 near George Crosby Manitou State Park in Finland, Minn.
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So far this November, the Twin Cities have had mild weather, but the North Shore has been looking more and more like winter.
MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner joined MPR News host Cathy Wurzer to talk about winter snowfall trends, an unseasonably warm week coming up, and forecasts across the state.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
CATHY WURZER: In the Twin Cities, you know it's been pretty mild. It's going to get actually a little warmer here next week. North Shore kind of looks like winter around Lutsen up to Grand Portage. Some places getting some significant snowfall. So we'll see how things are going to shake out here the rest of the week. Joining us right now is NPR News Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey, welcome back.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey. Thanks, Cathy. Good to talk with you. And yeah, tis the season. Nice coating of white up North. 2 inches in Ely, 4 in [INAUDIBLE] Lake, and 5 a little Northeast of Grand Marais.
CATHY WURZER: Really? OK.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY WURZER: Not surprised, evidently, given that November is a very changeable month.
PAUL HUTTNER: It is. And you know, it's interesting because I was looking at winter snowfall trends, right, because we're getting into that season. Even though no real snow in the forecast for the next few days here. But the 30 year averages, you're aware of this. The Weather Service changes and updates their averages every 10 years.
And our average snowfall in the Twin Cities dropped from 54.4 inches to 51.2. So that's an average drop of about 3 inches per year in this latest set of 30 year averages. Interesting to note that we get snow in November, 6.8 inches on average in the Twin Cities. But even that is down 2.5 in the latest set of averages.
And December is our snowiest month of the year, Cathy, on average now 11.4 inches. January is number two with 11, February with 9.5. Used to be March if you remember back in the day. But the snow patterns change enough every 10 years or so that those months can shift a little bit.
CATHY WURZER: So I'm going to assume there are some climate signals in there, climate change signals.
PAUL HUTTNER: There is. And I think the biggest one is that we're getting warmer air lingering into the collar seasons of winter, right? So into November, earlier in March overall. So that's meaning more rain, I think, as we get into November and March. So that precipitation is falling, but it's falling more as rain instead of snow.
CATHY WURZER: So let's talk about the forecast this week. It looks like it's fairly seasonable. I'm kind of curious about next week.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Well, this week does look seasonable. We've got a little cold front now blowing into Northwest Minnesota. We're at 46 in the Twin Cities today. We'll make it up to around 50 or so.
But then we're kind of chilly as we head through tomorrow. Still 49. 42 on Friday. The weekend looks pretty decent. Partly cloudy 46 Saturday, 55 on Sunday. And that is the beginning of the warming trend you mentioned, Cathy.
This is interesting because the upper air pattern looks highly amplified for next week, shall we say. A big dome of warm high pressure over the center part of the US. And Minnesota's going to be right in the epicenter of that. We're going to see several days of Southwest winds, some sunshine. It's going to be very on un-November-ish.
And it looks like highs next week will be in the 50s and even 60s in the Twin Cities and Southern Minnesota. European model cranking out 63 degrees next Wednesday, Cathy. That's 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average. Keep in mind, our average high for the Twin Cities in the middle of next week now is 48 degrees. So this will be highly unusual.
CATHY WURZER: Well, I was going to say I don't mind the warm, but it does feel-- that is kind of weird. That is weird.
PAUL HUTTNER: It is weird. And people have different reactions to this. Obviously some people want the warmer air to stick around. But we notice that these changes keep happening and eating away at our winters in Minnesota, which is part of our identity here.
CATHY WURZER: Yeah, no kidding. So let me ask you something completely different here about weather forecasting, the economic value of weather forecasting. And I'm curious about how do so-called operational weather forecasts-- how does it play into the US economy?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's really kind of cool. I got my start in this end of the business. I used to work for an operational meteorology firm that we had clients like gas utilities, electric utilities, right? They have to estimate their power load every day because it costs them money to buy that power.
So when the temperature, when the weather changes, we all use a different amount of energy. That adds up to millions of dollars, Cathy, pretty quickly. And major Fortune 500 companies also use meteorologists from airlines that save millions on routing their planes efficiently to big box stores.
You think of the Targets of the world, their supply chains. Even city plows that plow the streets. Running those shifts and operations can save a lot of money. So the bottom line is, NOAA says that accurate weather forecasting saves the US economy about $30 billion a year. So only 4% of meteorologists work in radio or TV, Cathy. The other 96% are doing something else. And so I always like to say think of your light switch when you turn it on, there might be a little meteorologist in there somewhere.
CATHY WURZER: I did not know that you used to work for an operational forecast firm.
PAUL HUTTNER: I did. It was called Weather Command in the Chicago area. And we had clients. Commonwealth Edison, a big electric utility. I used to do forecasts for a nuclear plant there that would have been used for evacuations that was eight miles from my house. So my heart was in that forecast, for sure.
CATHY WURZER: Wow. Before you go, of course, Climatecast. What are you going to be talking about?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Minnesota is developing a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Hub. They call it SAF, the Minnesota regulation economic development partnership. And they're going to try to scale this production for MSP airport. So we're going to talk to them and see what they're planning and how that might all come about. And just what is SAF anyway?
CATHY WURZER: The things you get yourself involved in. So interesting.
PAUL HUTTNER: It's a busy world.
CATHY WURZER: It is. All right, have a good day Thanks.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks. You too, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: That's NPR's Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, you can listen to Mr. Huttner and Tom Crann Monday through Friday All Things Considered right here on NPR News. And check out the Updraft blog at NPRNews.org
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey. Thanks, Cathy. Good to talk with you. And yeah, tis the season. Nice coating of white up North. 2 inches in Ely, 4 in [INAUDIBLE] Lake, and 5 a little Northeast of Grand Marais.
CATHY WURZER: Really? OK.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY WURZER: Not surprised, evidently, given that November is a very changeable month.
PAUL HUTTNER: It is. And you know, it's interesting because I was looking at winter snowfall trends, right, because we're getting into that season. Even though no real snow in the forecast for the next few days here. But the 30 year averages, you're aware of this. The Weather Service changes and updates their averages every 10 years.
And our average snowfall in the Twin Cities dropped from 54.4 inches to 51.2. So that's an average drop of about 3 inches per year in this latest set of 30 year averages. Interesting to note that we get snow in November, 6.8 inches on average in the Twin Cities. But even that is down 2.5 in the latest set of averages.
And December is our snowiest month of the year, Cathy, on average now 11.4 inches. January is number two with 11, February with 9.5. Used to be March if you remember back in the day. But the snow patterns change enough every 10 years or so that those months can shift a little bit.
CATHY WURZER: So I'm going to assume there are some climate signals in there, climate change signals.
PAUL HUTTNER: There is. And I think the biggest one is that we're getting warmer air lingering into the collar seasons of winter, right? So into November, earlier in March overall. So that's meaning more rain, I think, as we get into November and March. So that precipitation is falling, but it's falling more as rain instead of snow.
CATHY WURZER: So let's talk about the forecast this week. It looks like it's fairly seasonable. I'm kind of curious about next week.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Well, this week does look seasonable. We've got a little cold front now blowing into Northwest Minnesota. We're at 46 in the Twin Cities today. We'll make it up to around 50 or so.
But then we're kind of chilly as we head through tomorrow. Still 49. 42 on Friday. The weekend looks pretty decent. Partly cloudy 46 Saturday, 55 on Sunday. And that is the beginning of the warming trend you mentioned, Cathy.
This is interesting because the upper air pattern looks highly amplified for next week, shall we say. A big dome of warm high pressure over the center part of the US. And Minnesota's going to be right in the epicenter of that. We're going to see several days of Southwest winds, some sunshine. It's going to be very on un-November-ish.
And it looks like highs next week will be in the 50s and even 60s in the Twin Cities and Southern Minnesota. European model cranking out 63 degrees next Wednesday, Cathy. That's 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average. Keep in mind, our average high for the Twin Cities in the middle of next week now is 48 degrees. So this will be highly unusual.
CATHY WURZER: Well, I was going to say I don't mind the warm, but it does feel-- that is kind of weird. That is weird.
PAUL HUTTNER: It is weird. And people have different reactions to this. Obviously some people want the warmer air to stick around. But we notice that these changes keep happening and eating away at our winters in Minnesota, which is part of our identity here.
CATHY WURZER: Yeah, no kidding. So let me ask you something completely different here about weather forecasting, the economic value of weather forecasting. And I'm curious about how do so-called operational weather forecasts-- how does it play into the US economy?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's really kind of cool. I got my start in this end of the business. I used to work for an operational meteorology firm that we had clients like gas utilities, electric utilities, right? They have to estimate their power load every day because it costs them money to buy that power.
So when the temperature, when the weather changes, we all use a different amount of energy. That adds up to millions of dollars, Cathy, pretty quickly. And major Fortune 500 companies also use meteorologists from airlines that save millions on routing their planes efficiently to big box stores.
You think of the Targets of the world, their supply chains. Even city plows that plow the streets. Running those shifts and operations can save a lot of money. So the bottom line is, NOAA says that accurate weather forecasting saves the US economy about $30 billion a year. So only 4% of meteorologists work in radio or TV, Cathy. The other 96% are doing something else. And so I always like to say think of your light switch when you turn it on, there might be a little meteorologist in there somewhere.
CATHY WURZER: I did not know that you used to work for an operational forecast firm.
PAUL HUTTNER: I did. It was called Weather Command in the Chicago area. And we had clients. Commonwealth Edison, a big electric utility. I used to do forecasts for a nuclear plant there that would have been used for evacuations that was eight miles from my house. So my heart was in that forecast, for sure.
CATHY WURZER: Wow. Before you go, of course, Climatecast. What are you going to be talking about?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Minnesota is developing a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Hub. They call it SAF, the Minnesota regulation economic development partnership. And they're going to try to scale this production for MSP airport. So we're going to talk to them and see what they're planning and how that might all come about. And just what is SAF anyway?
CATHY WURZER: The things you get yourself involved in. So interesting.
PAUL HUTTNER: It's a busy world.
CATHY WURZER: It is. All right, have a good day Thanks.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks. You too, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: That's NPR's Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, you can listen to Mr. Huttner and Tom Crann Monday through Friday All Things Considered right here on NPR News. And check out the Updraft blog at NPRNews.org
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