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 will cut taxes by $3.75 trillion but also increase deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO also estimates an increase of 10.9 million people without health insurance under the bill by 2034, including 1.4 million who are in the United States without legal status in state-funded programs.

The package would reduce federal outlays, or spending, by nearly $1.3 trillion over that period, the budget office said.

“Republicans cry crocodile tears over the debt when Democrats are in charge — but explode it when they’re in power,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee.

“In the words of Elon Musk,” Boyle said, reviving 

the billionaire former Trump aide’s criticism

 of the package, “this bill is a ‘disgusting abomination.’”

The analysis comes at a crucial moment in the legislative process as 

 to have the final product on his desk to sign into law by the Fourth of July. The work of the CBO, which for decades has served as the official scorekeeper of legislation in Congress, will be weighed by 

 seeking to understand the budgetary impacts of the sprawling 1,000-page-plus package.

Ahead of the CBO’s release, the White House and Republican leaders criticized the budget office in a preemptive campaign designed to sow doubt in its findings.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the CBO has been “historically wrong,” and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the CBO was “flat wrong” because it underestimated the potential revenue growth from 

Trump’s first round of tax breaks in 2017

. The CBO last year said receipts were $1.5 trillion, or 5.6% greater than predicted, in large part because of the “burst of inflation” during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.

Leavitt also suggested that the CBO’s employees are biased, even though certain budget office workers face strict ethical rules — including restrictions on campaign donations and political activity — to ensure objectivity and impartiality.

“When it comes time to make prognostications on economic growth, they’ve always been wrong,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said at a press conference.

Asked later if it’s time to get rid of the CBO, Scalise did not dismiss the idea. “I think it’s very valid to raise these concerns that CBO has missed the problems that come with making false estimates,” Scalise said. “Economic growth has been their Achilles' heel.”

Alongside the costs of the bill, the CBO had previously estimated that nearly 4 million fewer people would have food stamps each month due to the legislation’s proposed changes to 

the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program

The bill, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after the president’s own catch phrase, is grinding its way through Congress, as the top priority of Republicans, who control both the House and the Senate — and face stiff opposition from Democrats at every step in the process.

Democrats call it Trump’s “big, ugly bill.”

All told, the package seeks to extend the individual income tax breaks that had been approved in 2017 but that will expire in December if Congress fails to act, while adding new ones, including 

. It also includes a massive buildup of $350 billion for 

border security, deportations and national security

To help cover the lost revenue, Republicans want to slash some federal spending. They propose phasing out green energy tax breaks put in place during Democrat Joe Biden's presidency. New work requirements for some adults up to age 65 on Medicaid and SNAP would begin in December 2026 and are expected to result in less spending on those programs.

The package also would provide a $4 trillion increase to 

, which is now $36 trillion, to allow more borrowing. The Treasury Department projects the debt limit will need to be raised this summer to pay the nation’s already accrued bills.

Now in its 50th year, the CBO was established by law after Congress sought to assert its control, as outlined in the Constitution, over the budget process, in part by setting up the new office as an alternative to the White House’s Office of Management and Budget.

Staffed by some 275 economists, analysts and other employees, the CBO says it seeks to provide Congress with objective, impartial information about budgetary and economic issues.

Its current director, Phillip Swagel, a former Treasury official in Republican President George W. Bush’s administration, was reappointed to a four-year term in 2023.

The Associated Press

Author

President Donald Trump’s big bill will cut taxes by $3.75 trillion but increase deficits by $2.4 trillion and leave 10.9 million more people without health insurance over the next decade.

The dome of the U.S. Capitol and steps up to its entrance.

Trump tax bill will add $2.4 trillion to the deficit and leave 10.9 million more uninsured, CBO says

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