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Keep an eye to the sky Thursday around much of Minnesota. A storm system will spawn thunderstorms that may produce severe weather. 

This system is particularly well-suited to produce violent updrafts within storms that can produce large hail from golf ball-sized up to 3 inches in diameter. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’

 lays out a slight to enhanced risk zone Thursday across eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin that includes the Twin Cities area. (See the image above.)

Check out the discussion in the convective outlook for storm potential in our region Thursday:

We may see a couple rounds of storms Thursday. The first wave looks likely during the morning hours. Then a second wave may fire into the afternoon hours.  

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model suggests a storm wave in southwestern Minnesota early Thursday morning that later tracks through central Minnesota, clipping the Twin Cities during morning rush hours. 

A second wave fires near the Twin Cities in the early afternoon and moves northeast. The forecast model loop below runs between 4 a.m. and 7 p.m. Thursday.

This system has the potential to drop some large hailstones across Minnesota Thursday. On the map below, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center highlights the risk of hail the size of golf balls  to baseballs across eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday. 

Some storms that develop Thursday will have violent updrafts capable of producing tornadoes. There is a growing risk for a few strong (EF-2 to EF-5) tornadoes Thursday, especially in Wisconsin. 

Aside from any severe weather, these storms may produce beneficial rainfall across much of Minnesota. 

Most forecast models produce between one-half and 1 inch of rainfall into Friday. NOAA’s latest (18Z) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model paints a swath of 1-inch rainfall from southwestern Minnesota through central and northeastern Minnesota, clipping the western Twin Cities. 

Paul Huttner

Author

A storm system will produce thunderstorm that could be severe Thursday. Large hail and damaging winds are possible.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Iowa State University

NOAA HRRR model between 4 a.m. and 7 p.m. Thursday.

Severe weather risk Thursday for much of Minnesota

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