Hot, dry weather and wildfire smoke are elevating ground-level ozone across most of Minnesota today.

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Our run of record warmth in a parched atmosphere has greatly increased fire danger across Minnesota. The explosive fires in northeastern Minnesota have consumed more than 20,000 acres as of early Tuesday.

Thankfully, the forecast models are strongly suggesting two main soaking rainfall events over the next 10 days. It may not be enough to quench the whole state, but many areas could see at least a couple inches of rain through next week. 

The first system spins through Thursday with scattered showers and some thunderstorms. 

Forecast models track another possible rainmaker through Minnesota in the middle of next week.

Forecast models vary as usual on the precise coverage and magnitude of rainfall through the next 10 days. On the map below, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model lays the heaviest rainfall across central and southern Minnesota.

The European weather agency’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System model cranks out around 3 inches of rainfall through next week:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s oft-maligned Global Forecast System model shows another solution:

There’s no way to be precise about where 2 to 3 inches of rain could fall through next week, but the signal is there for meaningful soaking rainfall for much of Minnesota in the next 10 days. That’s good news for farmers and for residents and firefighters in the wildfire zone.

Paul Huttner

Author

Our record heat and very dry air masses give way to rainfall chances through the next 10 days. It may not be enough to quench the whole state, but many areas could see at least a couple inches of rain through next week. 

Hopeful signs for much needed Minnesota rainfall over the next 10 days

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature and precipitation outlook

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA GFS model next Tuesday and Wednesday.

European (ECMWF) model precipitation output 2

Hopeful signs for much needed Minnesota rainfall over the next 10 days

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