Minnesotans are feeling a lot of economic uncertainty 100 days into Trump’s presidency
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An HR professional dreads a recession. An entrepreneur hopes a 30 percent slump in his business will recover. And an unemployed single mom is feeling “terrified.”
Many Minnesotans are experiencing economic uncertainty — but some are also feeling confident that things will turn around soon.
As President Donald Trump nears the milestone of his first 100 days in office, MPR News talked to voters around the state to see how they are faring economically under the Trump administration and how they rate the president’s job performance so far.
Economic pain and worry were common themes in their remarks. But Minnesotans’ tolerance of their economic discomfort varied dramatically, often tied to whether or not they support Trump.
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“I’m not going to lie, it's terrifying,” said Samantha Herd, a human resources professional in St. Paul, who said economic conditions seem to be deteriorating. “I know our company has suffered from it. I’ve had to do quite a few layoffs.”
Herd, who does not support Trump, fears that a recession is in the future and is trying to insulate herself financially. She said she’s working from home at least one day a week to save money on gas and is holding a garage sale soon, both to purge clutter and make some extra money.
Meanwhile, Dave Stoltman, owner of a liquidation business in Winona, is trying to get his head around why his business is down 30 percent since the beginning of the year.
“I think a lot of it is the uncertainty. You know, nobody knows for sure what’s going to happen,” he said.
Stoltman, who voted for Trump, said the president is trying to do too much, too fast, laying off tens of thousands of federal workers, and hitting goods from some major trading partners with tariffs while pausing tariffs aimed at other countries.
“Are these employees going to come back? Is the economy going to come back? The tariffs, what are they going to end up being?” he asked.
That said, Stoltman still applauds the general thrust of Trump’s efforts to trim the federal workforce and is willing to give him time to figure things out.
“I still support him,” he said.
Feeling the pinch
Inflation at the local and national level has been moderating and now sits close to the 2 percent rate that the Federal Reserve Bank sets as a target.
But many Minnesotans are struggling with elevated prices and are retrenching, trying to buy less stuff. Nationally, consumer sentiment plunged between March and April, as measured by a closely watched survey. The drop was fueled by concerns about trade policy and its potential to push inflation higher. Many household goods come from China, whose products Trump has hit with 145 percent tariffs.
Brandon Doty of Bemidji works as an installer for an office furniture and equipment company. He said prices already feel high “and they’re just getting higher.”
“Every time I have to get something done, it seems like it’s gone up another 50 bucks,” he said. “I just had to get my septic tank pumped, and it went from $155 to $220.”
Doty said he recently cancelled a trip to Las Vegas to save money and is generally trying to pinch pennies.
But Doty, who has supported Trump in three elections, is willing to give the president time to sort things out and was not surprised by the tariff moves.
“He said he was going to do these things, and now he’s doing them. I respect someone who follows through,” said Doty.
Doty said elevated prices cannot be fixed overnight. “It’s going to take some time.”
Truman Vang of St. Paul voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris. Like many Minnesotans, he said grocery prices still feel uncomfortably high.
“Things are getting, I don’t want to say worse, but harder,” he said.
In the past few months, Vang said he has been more cautious about his spending.
“I even use my shampoo bottles and things like that to the last drop, because I can’t go out and just buy it like how I used to,” he said.
Aaron Henning, co-owner of Val’s Hamburgers in St. Cloud, said some of his customers are squeezed by the current economic environment.
“People on fixed income are impacted the most by the drop in the stock market. Older folks are ordering less food or coming in less regularly,” he said.
Others are showing signs of being cash-strapped.
“We can see that through the use of multiple forms of payment or declined credit cards,” he said.
But Henning, a former GOP House candidate, supports Trump and his moves to shrink the size of the federal government and “do more with less.”
“That’s what’s expected of us as small business owners, and we hope that that can be expanded on the federal level,” he said.
Republican George Fredrickson of White Bear Township was more critical of Trump’s messaging on tariffs and the effect that has had on the stock markets.
“I think there has been a lot of confusion about what he wants to say and what he wants to do. He hasn’t explained it very well and has caused a lot of people anxiety, especially in the stock market,” he said.
Fredrickson noted that his retirement account took a big hit. Though his savings are recovering now, he thinks Trump needs to be more in touch with what people are feeling and back off of some of his “crazy ideas.”
“We don’t need Greenland right now,” Fredrickson said.
Brenna Heiser of St. Paul sees Trump’s tenure so far as “terrifying.” She did not support Trump and does not think he’s done anything to address inflation, which she said feels persistently high.
Heiser is a single mom and is worried about the economy. She lost her job doing email testing in the fall.
“Things do seem very scary,” she said.
Strong but for how long?
Despite the economic uncertainty, Minnesota is “on strong footing,” said Andrea Raffo, senior vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. MPR News spoke with Raffo on April 25, before a Federal Open Market Committee blackout period began.
Minnesota’s unemployment rate sat around 3 percent in March, which Raffo described as “very low.” He said job growth nationally and at the local level has been strong, and growth in real wages has been “decent.” What’s more, retail sales and car sales early in the year have come in strong, and inflation has been moderating.
But a number of global brokerages have increased their estimates of the likelihood of a recession, with JP Morgan putting the odds of a U.S. and global recession at 60 percent.
And the strong economic showing the U.S. and Minnesota had in the first three months of the year may not provide an adequate buffer, said Raffo.
“So these concerns about recession or slowdown are actually widespread at the moment,” he said. “And it looks like it’s going to be difficult for any single state or country to escape a slowdown if the global economy actually does enter a significant period of low activity.”
Tariffs effects on agriculture
Farmers stand to lose or gain a lot from Trump’s trade policies. China, which buys about half the soybeans produced in the U.S., has retaliated against Trump’s moves. It imposed 125 percent levies on U.S. goods.
Zach Johnson, a corn and soybean farmer in west-central Minnesota, said he’s cautiously optimistic that trade negotiations with China will turn out for the better and that Trump will soften his stance.
“It seems obvious that he’s really just trying to play hardball on negotiating. A lot of it, to me, also seems over the top,” Johnson said. “I think he probably didn’t have to go quite so hard.”
Johnson said he sells most of his corn to a local ethanol plant. His soybeans do not go directly to China, but instead to a grain elevator which decides where to sell it.
But Johnson said he’s lucky his family has invested in options to store grain, which allows him to be choosy about when to sell, a boon at a time of trade uncertainty. Most of his 2024 crop is currently in grain bins.
“We also have a lot of the prices protected on that crop. So we’ve actually hedged the prices on the Chicago Board of Trade,” he said. “We’re able to actually sit on that crop and have the prices locked in up until the point when we either need to sell it to either make payments or to make room for the 2025 crop.”
He’ll have similar options to store the 2025 crop he’s currently planting.
Johnson voted for Trump in large part because he wanted to see immigration fixed, viewing it as a national security issue. But he said he’s not a Trump superfan and hasn’t liked his abrasive style.
“I think he has a little bit of maturing to do, but, at the same time, you know, he’s got a lot of his policies that I agree with,” he said.
Mike Langseth, a farmer in Barney, N.D., is less sanguine about Trump and the impact his actions will have on agriculture. He did not vote for Trump and says he’s always gotten a “used car salesman” vibe from him.
Langseth farms corn, soybeans and sunflowers. And he’s worried about the economic uncertainty tariffs have ushered in. He expects to hold off on big expenditures.
“You're kind of in that mode where it’s like, ‘Well, if I don’t have to make that equipment upgrade this year, maybe I just won’t,’” he said.
MPR News reporter Mathew Holding Eagle III and correspondents Kirsti Marohn and Mark Zdechlik contributed to this report.