Thursday soaker; severe storms possible Monday
Weekend looks pretty nice with highs in the 60s
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Here comes that rainy day again.
A weather system pushes into Minnesota Thursday with widespread rain showers favoring southern Minnesota once again.
The National Weather Service’s digital blend of models at the top of this post suggests one-half to 1 inch of fresh rain around most of the Twin Cities. One to 2 inches of rain looks common across southern Minnesota.
If this were snow, we’d be forecasting 5 to 10 inches in the Twin Cities with more than a foot in southern Minnesota! Thankfully it’s warm enough for a cool rain.
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Rainfall coverage and timing
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model seems to have a good grasp on rainfall coverage and timing. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.
The bulk of forecast models favor the heaviest rainfall south of the Twin Cities into Iowa with lesser amounts north of the Twin Cities. Here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model output:
Temperatures Thursday will run in the cooler 50s across our region.
Decent weekend
Rain will end early Friday and the sun may peek out Friday afternoon. Saturday will be the sunnier day of the weekend with a few clouds and slight shower chances Sunday. Highs will be mainly in the 60s this weekend, so not bad.
Severe risk Monday
I’m still watching for a severe weather risk next Monday.
Monday will feel more like June than late April. Highs will be in the toasty upper 70s to around 80 in southern Minnesota. If we hit 80 degrees in the Twin Cities Monday, it will be right in line with the average date for the first 80-degree temperature of the season, which is around April 29.
Dew points will climb into the 60s. That will be fuel for strong to severe cells with an approaching front.
The risk zone Monday runs from Minnesota southward into the Central Plains:
NOAA’s convective outlook discussion highlights the threat:
On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Stay tuned.