Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Thursday soaker ahead; severe risk emerging Monday

Weather dries out Friday and Saturday

Precipitation output forecast
Precipitation output forecast through Friday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

It’s a beautiful Wednesday afternoon across much of central and southern Minnesota, but our recently wet weather pattern is about to drop more rainfall in the south Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows the system pushing waves of rain across Minnesota between 7 a.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday:

NOAA HRRR model
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model between 7 a.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The heaviest rainfall zone will favor southeastern Minnesota once again. More than an inch of rain is likely from around the Twin Cities through southern Minnesota. (See the map at the top of the post.)

Our weather dries out Friday and Saturday. Right now Saturday looks like the sunnier day of the weekend with highs in the 60s.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

Severe risk Monday?

Monday is shaping up to produce strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of Minnesota. A warmer and more humid air mass will push temperatures into the 70s to near 80 degrees in the south.

Forecast high temperatures Monday
Forecast high temperatures Monday
NOAA

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model lays out strong cells Monday afternoon and evening in our region:

European ECMWF model
Forecast model for 7 p.m. Monday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a risk zone for severe storms across the Upper Midwest:

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Monday
NOAA

We’ll see how this evolves in the coming days but Monday could be bumpy around here.

Stay tuned.