Severe storm and slight tornado risk Thursday

Doppler radars will be lighting up across Minnesota Thursday.

A cold front will spark scattered thunderstorms Thursday across much of Minnesota. Rain may be steadier in the north. But scattered stronger storms are likely across much of southern Minnesota starting around midday and especially late Thursday afternoon into evening.

I still like the looks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV3 model and how it handles the system Thursday. On the map below, note the main storm cluster moving through the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota between about 4 and 7 p.m. Thursday.

This system has the potential to produce a few individual super cells that may rotate. NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows the potential for rotation (helicity) around the greater Twin Cities area late Thursday afternoon into evening:

The primary risk from Thursday’s storms is heavy downpours, large hail and damaging winds over 60 mph. But if any storms get into the right environment, there is a nonzero chance for tornadoes to form.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a 2 percent risk of a tornado from Kansas City, Mo., northward to the Twin Cities.

You can see the broader risk area in the map at the top of this post. It’s been moved slightly farther north in the Wednesday afternoon update.

One area to watch Thursday is dew point advection. On the map below, see the most plume of dew points approaching 60 degrees getting sucked up into the Twin Cities at peak heating time Thursday afternoon?

The higher dew point plume is a marker for instability. You’ll feel the dew point rising Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures Thursday will reach the 70s in southern Minnesota Thursday. High in the 60s will reach the Twin Cities area with 50s to the north.

The weekend looks cooler with highs generally in the 50s. The next rain chance arrives late Sunday.

Stay aware Thursday for possible severe weather watches and warnings.