Storms start to move out of Minnesota, continue for western Wisconsin

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 that saw a record amount of money spent, national attention and was something of a referendum on Elon Musk, who played a big role, as well as President Trump's agenda by extension.

They also won a state schools superintendent race there, but Republicans got a win on a voter ID measure. And, in Florida, Republicans won two special elections by double-digits.

So what should be made of all that 19 months from the 2026 midterm elections?

1. The results show some political headwinds for Trump and Republicans.

Susan Crawford, a liberal judge, helped keep the state Supreme Court leaning in Democrats' direction in a race that saw nearly $70 million in advertising, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, the most ever for a judicial race. That included 

It was the marquee race of the elections Tuesday in a state that was decided by 1 point in the 2024 presidential election, and Crawford won it handily, by 10 points with more than 95 percent of the vote in.

Republicans, on the other hand, won the two special elections in Florida by roughly 14 points each. But these are very red districts. Republican members of Congress, who had represented these seats before being plucked for the Trump administration, won them by more than 30 points in November, so Democrats ate into the margins significantly there as well — though indications were they might do even better. (These are the seats that were held by Mike Waltz, now the national security adviser, and Matt Gaetz, whom Trump wanted to be attorney general before his nomination was pulled over concerns that he lacked sufficient Republican support to be confirmed.)

There were 60 Republican House members who won in 2024 by 15 points or less — and they might be concerned after these results, according to 

 editorial board, well read in Trump world, is calling the results a "

It's important to be careful to not overread the results of off-year elections — and Democrats did win a Wisconsin judicial seat in 2023, but lost the state in the presidential election. But there are early warning signs here for the GOP and a reminder that the energy is often with the out-party, which is why they have historically done so well in presidents' first midterms. And these elections can be breadcrumbs on the path to success in midterms, especially if a president continues with a bold and divisive agenda.

2. It was a very bad night for Elon Musk — and his days may be numbered as Trump's right hand.

Musk went all in in the Wisconsin judicial race. Groups with the 

 backing spent some $20 million. He also made an appearance in the state (wearing a cheese hat), offered $1 million checks to voters and even said "

Trump is likely to do what he does — put a positive spin on the results or say everything is fine and point to the Florida elections (as he did in an 

 social media post Tuesday night without mentioning the Wisconsin judicial result). But it likely isn't making him happy, especially considering how much heat Musk and his DOGE group have taken. Musk's favorability ratings have been a net-negative nationally — and were in Wisconsin too. Musk represented something of a heat shield for Trump on an unpopular way of making sweeping cuts to the government, but, after Tuesday's results, how long can he remain in the public eye and not start to affect Trump's political standing?

So far, Trump's overall approval rating has been marginally higher than during his first term because of 

. But an AP-NORC poll out this week showed Trump's 

 percent, compared to better marks he received on immigration. That's especially telling on this day of reciprocal tariffs as his trade war is unpopular.

If Musk does start to lose luster in Trump's eyes, it could be a result congressional Republicans are quietly happy about. After all, they won their two House seats in Florida, helping shore up their majority, and Wisconsin's outcome might help move Musk and his blunt, unpopular agenda out of the spotlight.

By the way, Musk may be new to politics, but he violated a key rule of it — never put anything on your head you don't normally wear, even Trump, who likes a good hat, 

3. Signs of how Democrats combat Trump — and what the base wants. 

An easy — and somewhat lazy — framing of the internal battle within the Democratic Party is "progressive vs. moderate." Largely, many in the party agree on the issues, with obvious exceptions on how far to go on certain things or when to push for them or not.

Right now, it is more fighting vs. acquiescence, of standing up vs. complacency.

That was clear with how angry the "do something" Democratic base was when Senate leader Chuck Schumer allowed a GOP-led spending bill to pass last month to keep the government open. It's also why so many on the left liked Sen. Cory Booker holding the floor of the Senate with an anti-Trump speech. It is now the longest speech ever in the chamber, more than 24 straight hours, 

, a fact Booker, who is Black, said he was "very aware" of.

The chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party summed up the split among Democrats.

"I don't think that the most meaningful distinction within Democrats now is left versus center," state party chair Ben Wikler said in MSNBC's 

. "I think it's actually going on your front foot and fighting back versus rolling over and playing dead."

He noted that Crawford was against an abortion ban at the court, that Jill Underly, the state schools chief, ran against the dismantling of Department of Education, and that they both were against Musk casting "aside any check and balance."

"These are broadly held by progressives, by centrists, by everything in between," Wikler said. "The critical thing is to go out there and fight. It is to make the case to voters; it is to be omnipresent, to communicate, travel everywhere, and I think the Democrats who do that in the big-tent coalition that makes up the Democratic Party, the anti-MAGA coalition, you're going to see a lot of success from people who have that energy and that conviction. That's what voters are looking for right now."

4. The political realignment is helping Democrats in off-year elections.

Both parties poured millions of outside dollars into these races, and that's because off-year and special elections are hard to mobilize voters.

The $70 million spent on ads alone in Wisconsin was the 

 and lots of it came from outside the state.

In Florida, the 6th congressional district election for Waltz's seat — the one Trump and the GOP were most concerned about — would have been in the 

top 20 for most spending by a single candidate

 2024 cycle, and that was over 20 months. This was two. The Democrat raised about $10 million in that time and spent more than $8 million, while the Republican spent less than $1 million, as of the candidates' March 12 filings.

Turnout wasn't bad. It's always lower in those kinds of races than in presidential elections — and that, of course, was the case in both states. 

, roughly 2.4 million ballots were cast (with 95 percent in), about 30 percent less than in November. In Florida, fewer than 200,000 voters went to the polls in each congressional district. In 2024, it was 

But it's a reminder that firing up the bases is key in off-year and midterm elections —and that the realignment of college-educated voters, who have higher turnout rates, toward Democrats is helping them in these kinds of elections.

5. Voter ID is an issue that continues to heavily lean right. 

It should be noted that the same voters who voted for a liberal judge in Wisconsin also 

It's something that's already state law; this enshrined it in the state constitution.

 last year found 81 percent in favor of requiring people to show government-issued photo ID to vote. That included 69 percent of Democrats. Few things get that level of bipartisan support.

So, yes, Democrats can take Tuesday as one of the first bits of good news they've had since the 2024 presidential election. But they also have to be aware that there are lots of issues that are still center-right, including voter ID and many measures meant to curb immigration — especially when the party is seeing 

Domenico Montanaro

Author

Democrats can take yesterday’s elections as one of the first bits of good news they’ve had in months. But there are lots of issues that are still center-right, including immigration.

5 takeaways from Tuesday’s elections, including bad news for Elon Musk

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