No April fooling: Another sloppy snow storm ahead Tuesday

Here we go again.

I wish our forecast was a bad April Fools' Day joke. But yet another sloppy snow and rain event is headed straight for Minnesota Tuesday into Wednesday.

Winter storm watches will likely be upgraded to warnings late Monday for most of Minnesota north and west of the greater Twin Cities area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 223 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...SPRING STORM FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL MINNESOTA... .

Another potent Spring Storm is on tap to arrive on Tuesday lasting into Wednesday with heavy snow expected for much of central Minnesota. The system will arrive in western Minnesota by Tuesday morning with a band of heavy snow expected to begin by the afternoon continuing overnight as the system pushes eastwards.

Snow quality is expected to be on the heavier, slushier side as snow ratios favor below 10 to 1. An influx of mid level warm air could also lead to a wintry mix at times, with widespread rain to the south of the main band of snowfall. Snow will diminish by Wednesday afternoon as the system continues into the Great Lakes region.

A broad area of 6 or more inches of snow is expected for parts of central Minnesota, with high end amounts potentially reaching the double digits. Ice accumulations should generally remain a glaze to a few hundredths at the most.

The good news? Another inch or more of precipitation should wipe out what’s left of lingering fall drought across big chunks of Minnesota.

Let’s break down yet another wintry spring weather system ahead for Minnesota starting Tuesday.

The system

Another classic Colorado low will spin into Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV3 model captures the gist of the low spinning north into Minnesota from Colorado between Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon:

The lead precipitation wave is likely to be a shot of heavy snow Tuesday morning in southwestern Minnesota. That zone spreads into the Twin Cities and points north Tuesday afternoon. Note the transition to rain later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be critical with this system in determining precipitation types.

We’ll hover just around to above the freezing mark in the lowest mile of the atmosphere. That should mean snow to begin with, but time of day and stronger April sun may penetrate the cloud deck enough to turn snow to rain around parts of the Twin Cities during Tuesday.

Warmer air will eventually overcome the snow and change precipitation to mostly rain in the Twin Cities later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

To the northwest across central and northern Minnesota, precipitation will remain mostly snow. Heavy sloppy snowfall will pile up from Ortonville through Alexandria to Brainerd, Bemidji, the Iron Range and North Shore. That’s where 5 to more than 10 inches of heavy wet snow is likely to fall and compact.

The Twin Cities will likely pick up a couple slushy inches that will be washed away with rain by Wednesday.

The good news for Minnesota’s soils, rivers, and lakes is that this system will drop yet another inch of liquid across much of Minnesota. Our active late winter and spring weather pattern has virtually wiped out drought in much of Minnesota as we head deeper into spring.