Messy snow and rain event rolls into Minnesota Tuesday
Periods of snow, rain in the Twin Cities; winter storm watches north and west
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Our early April storm system is still on track for Tuesday. The latest forecast model indications Monday afternoon are leaning toward more rain mixing in with snow in the Twin Cities Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Our stronger April sun can penetrate snow systems and warm them a couple of critical degrees during the daytime. That can change snow to rain in the afternoon, and warm soggy thawed ground can limit how much snow actually sticks.
Throw in a warm layer above ground and you can get mixed precipitation types. I don't think we’ll see much ice Tuesday with temperatures at ground level above the freezing mark.
So I expect a mix of rain and snow in the Twin Cities Tuesday afternoon into evening. But we could get a couple hours of heavy snow especially early Tuesday evening as the strongest system dynamics and lift pass overhead.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s updated NAM 3 km model Monday afternoon shows the trend toward a mix of rain as snow across the Twin Cities as precipitation phase changes occur. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Tuesday and 1 p.m. Wednesday.
Winter storm watches remain in effect for most of Minnesota north and west of the Twin Cities.
The heaviest snowfall is likely to occur from west-central Minnesota to the North Shore:
Including the cities of Pine City, Superior, Bayfield, Hill City, Duluth, Hinckley, Bigfork, International Falls, Grand Marais, Ely, Aitkin, Washburn, Pine River, Brainerd, Two Harbors, Walker, Hibbing, Silver Bay, Isabella, and Grand Rapids
235 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. There is a 60 to 80 percent chance for at least 6 inches of snow accumulation over the watch area. There is a 50 percent chance for at least 12 inches of snow or more along the North Shore and around the Brainerd Lakes. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...In Minnesota, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Pine, Koochiching, Cass, Itasca, Carlton, St. Louis, Cook and Lake Counties. In Wisconsin, Bayfield and Douglas Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation, the Red Cliff Band, the Fond du Lac Band, the Mille Lacs Band, Hinckley, Lena Lake, Big Sandy Lake and, East Lake areas and the Bois Forte Band, Deer Creek, Nett Lake and, Lake Vermilion areas. Other locations including Voyageurs National Park and the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore. The entire Boundary Waters is also included.
* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.
The Twin Cities are is likely to get a couple slushy inches that will be washed away by rain through Wednesday. Expect wet roads and a potentially snowy commute Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Sunshine returns the rest of the week starting Thursday. Highs will be in the 50s in the south with 40s north.
Right now, this is the last significant snow system on the weather maps for Minnesota for the next 10 days. Could it be the last of the season?
Stay tuned.