Storm shifts south; little snow for Twin Cities but blizzard warnings south of MSP
European model leads the way in southern storm track shift. Winter storm warnings dropped for Twin Cities.
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King Euro rules again.
There’s great news for Twin Cities residents who didn’t want to shovel or drive through sloppy snow Wednesday.
Tuesday’s morning into midday forecast model runs have completed the southward storm track shift that the European model latched onto in previous days. And it’s not just NOAA’s often shaky GFS model. The bulk of the suite of U.S. forecast models have advertised a more northward storms track in previous days that would have brought heavy snow to the Twin Cities.
But Tuesday’s model runs appear decisive that the bulk of heavy snow will fall south of the greater Twin Cities across northern Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and central Wisconsin.
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NOAA’s 12Z HRRR model run is typical of those that paint the snow zone across southeast Minnesota and keep most of the snow south of the greater Twin Cities. The forecast model loop below runs between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. Wednesday.
Forecast high temperature will hover above freezing across most of Minnesota so any snow that falls will have a hard time accumulating except under the most intense snow bands across southeast Minnesota.
Winter storms warnings have been dropped for the greater Twin Cities Wednesday. But blizzard warnings remain in effect for much of southern Minnesota Wednesday.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025
...HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING SOUTH WITH WINTER STORM...
The narrow band of heavier snow has shifted south, and the gradient has tightened up. As a result, areas across central Minnesota will see less snow, so the Blizzard Warning was replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory for Le Sueur, Nicollet, Brown, Watonwan, Rice, and Goodue counties. Areas to the south and east of those counties have a higher chance of seeing whiteout conditions from heavy snow and strong wind, so a blizzard warning remains in effect for those locations. In Pepin and Eau Claire Counties, the Winter Storm Watch was replaced with a Winter Storm Warning.
As for timing, snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will develop Wednesday morning and last into early Wednesday afternoon. Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will accompany the snow, with occasional gusts near 45 mph along I-90.
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn- Including the cities of Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, Waseca, and Albert Lea
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches and north winds gusting 35 to 45 mph.
* WHERE...Faribault, Freeborn, Martin, Steele, and Waseca Counties.
* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
Travel across southeast Minnesota, I-94 to Madison, and I-35 to Des Moines will be difficult Wednesday.