Season's first severe risk for southern Minnesota Friday
Large hail and damaging wind gusts possible
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Here we go. The season’s first severe weather risk areas have been posted for much of southeastern Minnesota Friday.
On the map above, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center lays out zones of marginal and slight risk.
A powerful spring storm will spark a severe weather outbreak across much of the Mississippi Valley and the southeast Friday and Saturday. Minnesota will ride the northern edge of the severe risk zone with the best chance for strong to severe storms mainly on Friday evening.
NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows the system with scattered storms developing in Iowa Friday afternoon and surging into southern Minnesota Friday evening.
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The model loop below runs between noon Friday and noon Saturday. Watch as cold air changes rain to snow in western Minnesota Saturday.
NOAA’s convective outlook for Friday describes the storm setup across the Mississippi Valley region:
...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes.
...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley.
Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability.
Highs Thursday will warm into the 60s across much of southern Minnesota.
Friday likely brings the warmest day of the year so far as warm advection blows highs into the 70s across southern Minnesota.
Friday evening storms
The most favored time window for severe storms across southern Minnesota Friday is between about 6 and 9 p.m. We’ll get a finer resolution on the severe threat as we move into the short-range forecast model window over the next 24 hours.
The Twin Cities National Weather Service office lays out the meteorological detail in Wednesday’s forecast discussion:
A Day 3 slight risk (2 of 5) for severe weather across southeast Minnesota. This includes Albert Lea and Owatonna. A marginal risk exists for three tiers of counties north of the slight (Mankato, Twin Cities, Eau Claire), with a general thunder outlook for the rest of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
MUCAPE values of 1000J/kg are present across much of the southern two-thirds of Minnesota and western third of Wisconsin around 7PM Friday night per the LREF. On the flip side, CIN values are around 75 to 100J/kg. Forecast soundings verify this analysis with long and skinny CAPE profiles and a capped atmosphere into the early evening. The CIN eventually dissipates with the cold frontal passage around 8 or 9PM.
Given the cap, it doesn`t look like any significant storms would initiate prior to 7PM. This allows for a narrow timeframe in which MUCAPE remains after the cap is gone for a few storms to become severe, especially across southern Minnesota.
The way things are looking now, our threat for surface-based storms is relatively low, but an elevated hail threat could be something to watch for. A few weak tornadoes cannot fully be ruled out, but strong winds would be the bigger concern. As we get closer in time, high-res models will become available and can cover this system. This will allow for a better idea of what to expect on what could be Minnesota`s first severe event of 2025.
Weekend snow
Rain will change to snow on the colder backside of the system by Saturday morning across western Minnesota.
Right now, forecast models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are cranking out a band of heavy snow potential for western Minnesota with little snow in the east.
Stay tuned as we watch this potent spring storm evolve into Friday.