Ferocious, wind-driven heavy snow on the way; blizzard conditions near Twin Cities
Forecast models show heaviest snow bands pushing farther north into Twin Cities
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We’re just hours away from what may be the biggest snowfall event of the cold season in the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota.
The biggest snowfall so far this season at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is 5.5 inches on Dec. 19. There’s a decent chance we will surpass that total across much of the Twin Cities Wednesday.
Here’s the latest on our potent early March storm winding up Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The system
A powerful, wrapped-up low-pressure system is feeding moisture north into Minnesota. The low-pressure center will track from around Kansas City, Mo., on Tuesday to near Chicago by midday Wednesday.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model is similar to most that have found reasonable consensus on the storm’s track and precipitation profile. The forecast model loop below runs between 3 p.m. Tuesday and noon Wednesday.
It’s already snowing across much of western through central and northeastern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Rain will change to snow across the Twin Cities area between about 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. Tuesday evening. Rain will quickly change to snow across southeastern Minnesota Tuesday night.
The heaviest snowfall will occur between about midnight and 8 a.m. across our region. Many of these hours will feature snowfall rates on 1 inch per hour.
Snowfall totals
Forecast models have trended northward with the heavier snow bands in the past 12 hours. That should push heavier snowfall bands into much of the Twin Cities overnight. The heaviest snows still favor the southern and eastern Twin Cities, with lesser totals north and west.
The sweet spot of heaviest snowfall with the system still favors a zone from the southern Twin Cities south along Interstate 35 and eastward. This area is likely to see anywhere form 5 to more than 10 inches of snow.
A few high-end model solutions crank out a foot of snow across parts of southeastern Minnesota from the far southern Twin Cities through Rochester and Red Wing.
Lesser snow totals will be the rule as you move northward through Minnesota. Lake-effect will dump heavy snow across Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and northwestern Wisconsin.
High winds
The pressure gradient wit this system in intense. Wind gusts from 40 mph to over 50 mph are likely across much of central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin.
This will be a wetter snow with about a 10 to 1 snow-to-water ratio. So the whipping wind may plaster this snow onto the northeast side of tree trunks and other standing objects like power poles. Power outages are a possibility late Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Warnings
Winter storm warnings include the greater Twin Cities area:
Including the cities of Osceola, St Peter, Chaska, Blaine, Gaylord, Shakopee, Chanhassen, Minneapolis, Center City, St Paul, and Victoria
318 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
* WHERE...In Minnesota, Sibley, Anoka, Carver, Chisago, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Nicollet Counties. In Wisconsin, Polk County.
* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
Blizzard warnings cover most of southern Minnesota.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 318 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
...HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY... .A strong early spring system is set to impact Minnesota later today into Wednesday. Rain will quickly change to snow from west central Minnesota to south central Minnesota this evening into tonight. Winds intensify from the north and become strong with gusts between 45 to 55 mph. The combination of these winds with falling snow will cause significant visibility reductions with a period of blizzard conditions expected. Blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions, particularly in open areas, will make travel dangerous at times tonight into a part of Wednesday morning. Even as the falling snow ends, blowing snow and visibility restrictions may persist. Conditions are expected to gradually improve later Wednesday as the snow ends and winds slowly decrease.
Including the cities of Faribault, Red Wing, Mankato, Fairmont, Albert Lea, Le Sueur, Waseca, Owatonna, St James, and Blue Earth
318 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches. Winds gusting 45 to 55 mph.
* WHERE...Blue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Le Sueur, Martin, Rice, Steele, Waseca, Watonwan, and Goodhue Counties.
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. Strong winds could cause damage to trees and power lines.
Outlook
Milder temperatures and a more powerful March sun will work to melt the snow in the coming days. Highs will approach the 40s in the Twin Cities by Sunday.
There are signs we could see even milder air with highs in the 50s to 60s next week.
Snow lovers, enjoy our early March snow-blitz. It won’t stick around too long.
Weather information links
Here’s how to keep tabs on forecasts, travel conditions and flight updates.
Forecast updates
MPR News: Current weather conditions and radar
National Weather Service: Snowfall reports
Travel conditions
These state transportation departments offer live updates on road conditions and crashes:
For bus and light rail riders in the Twin Cities, Metro Transit offers weather-related updates on its Metro Transit and Metro Transit Alerts X accounts, as well as on its website.
Flight updates
If you’re planning to fly out of Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport or another airport around the region — or if you are expecting visitors to arrive by plane — airports offer flight status updates online: