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We’re just hours away from what may be the biggest snowfall event of the cold season in the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota. 

The biggest snowfall so far this season at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is 5.5 inches on Dec. 19. There’s a decent chance we will surpass that total across much of the Twin Cities Wednesday. 

Here’s the latest on our potent early March storm winding up Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A powerful, wrapped-up low-pressure system is feeding moisture north into Minnesota. The low-pressure center will track from around Kansas City, Mo., on Tuesday to near Chicago by midday Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model is similar to most that have found reasonable consensus on the storm’s track and precipitation profile. The forecast model loop below runs between 3 p.m. Tuesday and noon Wednesday.

It’s already snowing across much of western through central and northeastern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Rain will change to snow across the Twin Cities area between about 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. Tuesday evening. Rain will quickly change to snow across southeastern Minnesota Tuesday night.

The heaviest snowfall will occur between about midnight and 8 a.m. across our region. Many of these hours will feature snowfall rates on 1 inch per hour. 

Forecast models have trended northward with the heavier snow bands in the past 12 hours. That should push heavier snowfall bands into much of the Twin Cities overnight. The heaviest snows still favor the southern and eastern Twin Cities, with lesser totals north and west. 

The sweet spot of heaviest snowfall with the system still favors a zone from the southern Twin Cities south along Interstate 35 and eastward. This area is likely to see anywhere form 5 to more than 10 inches of snow. 

A few high-end model solutions crank out a foot of snow across parts of southeastern Minnesota from the far southern Twin Cities through Rochester and Red Wing.

Lesser snow totals will be the rule as you move northward through Minnesota. Lake-effect will dump heavy snow across Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and northwestern Wisconsin. 

The pressure gradient wit this system in intense. Wind gusts from 40 mph to over 50 mph are likely across much of central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. 

This will be a wetter snow with about a 10 to 1 snow-to-water ratio. So the whipping wind may plaster this snow onto the northeast side of tree trunks and other standing objects like power poles. Power outages are a possibility late Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Milder temperatures and a more powerful March sun will work to melt the snow in the coming days. Highs will approach the 40s in the Twin Cities by Sunday.

There are signs we could see even milder air with highs in the 50s to 60s next week.

Snow lovers, enjoy our early March snow-blitz. It won’t stick around too long. 

Here’s how to keep tabs on forecasts, travel conditions and flight updates.

These state transportation departments offer live updates on road conditions and crashes:

For bus and light rail riders in the Twin Cities, Metro Transit offers weather-related updates on its 

If you’re planning to fly out of Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport or another airport around the region — or if you are expecting visitors to arrive by plane — airports offer flight status updates online:

Paul Huttner

Author

A potent March storm will bring wintry weather to much of Minnesota. The heaviest snowfall and wind will occur from the Twin Cities southward toward Rochester and Red Wing.

Ferocious, wind-driven heavy snow on the way; blizzard conditions near Twin Cities

Go Deeper.

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