Gnarly wintry storm ahead Tuesday night and Wednesday

Cue the classic state tournament snowstorm.

A major wintry storm in early meteorological spring will blast much of our region with rain, snow and high winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Monday afternoon’s winter storm watches across much of southern Minnesota and Wisconsin will likely become winter storm warnings in the next 12 hours. Blizzard warnings are possible by Tuesday across parts of southern Minnesota.

Including the cities of Blue Earth, Owatonna, St James, Hastings, Red Wing, Faribault, Waseca, Le Sueur, Mankato, Fairmont, and Albert Lea

226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Dakota, Blue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Le Sueur, Martin, Rice, Steele, Waseca, Watonwan, and Goodhue Counties. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute.

Let’s break down the likely chain of significant weather events over the next 48 hours.

The system

This storm is a pretty classic Colorado low-pressure systems racing from Colorado to near Chicago by Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV3 model seems to have a pretty good handle on the scattered rain Tuesday changing to heavy snow bands from north to south across Minnesota Tuesday evening.

The forecast model loop below runs between 6 a.m. Tuesday and noon Wednesday.

Scattered rain will increase then change to snow Tuesday evening. The most likely transition time around the greater Twin Cities is likely to occur between about 7 and 9 p.m.

Hopefully Tuesday evening’s rush hours will end before significant snowfall accumulations in the Twin Cities, but roads northwest of the Twin Cities across central Minnesota could be slick by late Tuesday afternoon.

Snowfall totals

There’s still time for forecast model changes Tuesday before the snow flies for real. But the ongoing consensus is that the heaviest snow zone will favor southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s digital snowfall forecast output looks like a pretty good blend of what I’m seeing on the U.S. and European models.

So the idea of less snow in the northwest Twin Cities and more snow in the southeast, like Dakota County, seems reasonable. Less snow is likely as you move north across Minnesota.

Stay tuned to see if storm track shifts affect the layout Tuesday.

Blizzard conditions possible

The pressure gradient with this storm will tighten quickly Tuesday night. That will ramp up wind gusts to more than 40 to 50 mph across much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The combination of intense winds and heavy snow bands will create gnarly travel conditions across our region late Tuesday night and Wednesday. The Wednesday morning commute looks difficult to dangerous.

Temperatures will moderate later this week into the upper 30s and 40s again by this weekend. We could even see more 50s and possibly 60s next week. So like many things in life, this snow too shall pass.

Snowfall ratios are likely to be around 10 to 1 with this system so it will be a fairly wet snow to shovel and plow. Overall liquid equivalent moisture totals are likely to be between one-half inch to more than 1 inch across southern Minnesota.

I’ll take the moisture in any form at this point.