Severe storms are rolling through central Minnesota including the Twin Cities

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May you live in interesting weather times.

A twist on that old Chinese proverb seems appropriate given Friday’s inbound weather system, which holds both boom and bust potential for eastern Minnesota including the Twin Cities. 

There’s much more forecast model spread for projected snowfall totals just 24 hours before the snow is supposed to begin. This one will be a question of how quickly moisture from the south can inject into a relatively dry wave crossing Minnesota Friday. 

Here’s a little inside meteorology baseball on two forecast model scenarios playing out as we look at Friday’s system.

If moisture feeds into the system sooner, we could see a few hours of hefty snow across eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, Friday afternoon.  

Bands of heavy snow would continue to move into Wisconsin along the warm nose of the system. Then several hours of lighter snow would persist in the lift zone ahead of the advancing cold front.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km shows the likely evolution of snowfall if significant moisture arrives sooner across Minnesota. The forecast model loop below runs between noon Friday and 6 a.m. Saturday.

If the moisture arrives early and feed the system Friday afternoon, snowfall totals would be significant. NOAA’s Global Forecast System model is on the high side of the snowfall forecast envelope:

If moisture gets sucked into the system later, many areas from the Twin Cities westward could get skunked with little snow. 

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model is the outlier on the extreme low end of snowfall possibilities with a distinct dry slot edging into the Twin Cities. Under this scenario much of the Twin Cities would get less than an inch of snow.

We’re always a little uncomfortable with so much model spread this close to a possible snowfall. 

Right now, I’m most comfortable with a likely snowfall range of 1 to 4 inches across the greater Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota from west to east. The best chance for 4 or more inches favors the eastern Twin Cities. 

NOAA’s latest digital snowfall output seems reasonably in the middle of forecast solutions:

Heavier snowfall totals to 6 inches or more are possible in Wisconsin. A few models suggest southeastern Minnesota towns like Rochester that missed out on recent snow chances may get more than the Twin Cities this time.

Travel conditions will be tough from eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin by Friday night. For now 

Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 20s south.

Another prolonged shot of arctic air is on the way next week. Temperatures will fall below zero across most of Minnesota by later Sunday. 

Monday through Wednesday mornings will see lows in the teens below zero south to minus 20s and minus 30s north once again:

Forecast models suggest shift in the jet stream during the last week in February. That would push milder Pacific air back into Minnesota. Models suggest highs in southern Minnesota could reach the 30s or even 40s.

Could next week be the last super cold week of the winter season?

Paul Huttner

Author

There are big questions as to how quickly moisture will arrive into Friday’s weather system.

Friday's Twin Cities snow could be plowable or paltry. Here's why

Go Deeper.

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