Forecast model trends put heaviest Saturday snow north of the Twin Cities
Lesser snowfall from the Twin Cities south; slick roads likely into early Saturday
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Friday’s forecast model trends continue Thursday’s trend of keeping the heaviest snow bands with our system north of the Twin Cities. The most significant snowfall zone will lay out across central Minnesota.
Winter weather advisories are up for most of central and southern Minnesota, including the greater Twin Cities area. A winter storm warning covers areas between Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls. (See the map above.)
As I type this post late Friday afternoon, a band of moderate-to-heavy snow has already set up from the Dakotas into Minnesota through Fargo-Moorhead and along Interstate 94 into the Fergus Falls and Morris areas.
Forecast models still bring the heaviest snow band across central Minnesota overnight into early Saturday. The Twin Cities will ride the southern edge of the snow zone overnight. Snow will taper off from west to east Saturday morning.
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On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 18Z High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model loop runs between 6 p.m. Friday and noon Saturday.
There are a couple of models that bring a dry slot right up into the Twin Cities and suggest very little snow from the Twin Cities southward. That’s possible but they are still outliers at this point.
Here’s a look at a few of the latest forecast snowfall solutions from 18Z Friday afternoon.
Here’s NOAA’s 18Z Global Forecast System model snowfall output:
Here’s NOAA’s 18Z High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model:
The latest digital output from NOAA and the Twin Cities National Weather Service office still lays out heavy snow north of the Twin Cities with lesser totals as you move south:
Looking at the models, the best lift zone is definitely north of the Twin Cities Friday night. We’ll have to see how well snow bands can generate on the southern edge, but there will likely be a sharp cutoff on the storm’s southern edge.
It looks like another near miss for the Twin Cities on the heavier snow zone by about 50 miles.
High temperatures on Saturday will be in the teens north and 20s south.
