Heaviest snow Wednesday north of Twin Cities; bigger storm likely Saturday
5-10 inches possible Saturday across central Minnesota
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We’re tracking the first of two snow systems across Minnesota this week.
Wednesday’s system favors significant snowfall accumulations across central and northern Minnesota. The Twin Cities and southern Minnesota will pick up lighter snow showers through Wednesday night.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model seems to have a pretty good handle on snowfall coverage and timing through Thursday morning.
The forecast model loop below runs between 5 p.m. Wednesday and 5 a.m. Thursday. See how most of the steadier snow favors northern Minnesota with the Twin Cities on the southern edge?
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NOAA’s FV3 model shows the likely accumulation with less than an inch around most of the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. Several inches of snow are likely across the north:
Winter weather advisories cover most of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin into Thursday morning.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN
444 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025
North Itasca-North Cass-South Itasca-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin- South Aitkin-Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine-Douglas-Burnett- Washburn- Including the cities of Hill City, Superior, Brainerd, Duluth, Grantsburg, Grand Rapids, Hinckley, Pine City, Bigfork, Aitkin, Spooner, and Walker
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches.
* WHERE...In Minnesota, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Pine, Aitkin, Cass, Itasca, Carlton, and Southern St. Louis Counties. In Wisconsin, Burnett, Douglas, and Washburn Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the St. Croix Band in Burnett County, the Bois Forte Band, Deer Creek area, the Fond du Lac Band and the Mille Lacs Band, East Lake, Big Sandy Lake, Hinckley and, Lena Lake areas.
* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commute.
Bigger storm likely Saturday
Wednesday midday forecast model runs are still on track for a bigger snow system Saturday. This one looks like it could deliver major winter storm conditions to much of central and southern Minnesota including the greater Twin Cities area Saturday.
NOAA’s Global Forecast System model is consistent with others that show the bulk of the storm tracking across central and southern Minnesota Saturday. The forecast model loop below runs between 12:01 a.m. and 6 p.m. Saturday.
It still looks likely this system will lay down a swath of between 5 and 10 inches in the sweet spot of the storm. Right now models favor that zone covering central into southern Minnesota.
Here’s NOAA’s Global Forecast System 24-hour snowfall output through all of Saturday:
We’re now less than 60 hours from the onset of snowfall so forecast confidence is growing.
Stay tuned as we watch for model changes in the coming days.