Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Snowier pattern ahead. Subzero arctic outbreak next week?

Two more chances for snow this week in much of Minnesota

Snowfall projection for Minnesota
Snowfall projection for Minnesota by Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The second half of La Niña winters are notorious for bringing cold and snow to Minnesota, and it appears our weather pattern is ready to shoot to the cold and snowy mode in the coming weeks.

We’ve already picked up some impressive snowfall total across much of northeastern Minnesota in the past few days:

Snowfall totals
Snowfall totals last weekend.
Duluth National Weather Service
  • International Falls, 5.3 inches

  • Cloquet, 5.8 inches

  • Ely, 6.1 inches

  • Castle Danger, 6.5 inches

  • Two Harbors and Grand Marais, 7 inches

  • Lester Park and Silver Bay, 8 inches

  • Lutsen area, 8 to 9 inches

Our Monday morning snowfall in the Twin Cities brought an inch to most locations. Two more chances for snow are ahead on the weather maps this week.

Our next snow chance arrives on Wednesday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model is typical of many developing splotchy-looking convective snow and ice showers around the greater Twin Cities late Wednesday.

The forecast model loop below runs between 3 p.m. and 11:59 p.m. Wednesday:

NOAA NAM 3 km model
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between 3 p.m. Wednesday and midnight Thursday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Early indications suggest this will be another light snowfall for the Twin Cities with heavier accumulations across northern Minnesota.

Snowfall projection for Minnesota
Snowfall projection for Minnesota by Thursday
NOAA

Bigger storm Saturday?

The Canadian, American and European models all agree on snow for much of Minnesota Saturday.

If current forecast model trends hold, this system will produce a wide swath of snow from north-central Minnesota through the Twin Cities and southward.

Here’s NOAA’s Global Forecast System model solution as of Monday:

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model between 6 a.m. Saturday and midnight Sunday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

It’s quite possible the storm track and timing could shift in the next few days. But if this scenario unfolds we could be looking at significant plowable snowfall totals Saturday across much of central and southern Minnesota.

Let’s see how the models evolve this week.

Subzero outbreak next week?

Forecast models suggest the upper winds will pull down a significant arctic outbreak next week. Here’s NOAA’s Global Forecast System upper-air anomaly between Friday and next Thursday:

NOAA GFS upper air forecast
Global Forecast System upper-air forecast between Friday and next Thursday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Early indications are that temperatures may reach the teens below zero once again across southern Minnesota with minus 20s to minus 30s possible up north.

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook
Six to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA

Stay tuned to see how this evolves as we try and gauge the magnitude and duration of any possible arctic outbreak next week.