Record warmth likely Thursday; Saturday snow chance persists

Thursday will likely be the warmest day in January for much of Minnesota.

Southern Minnesota was in the lower 50s on Tuesday. Thursday’s air mass looks a few degrees warmer. The upstream air mass across South Dakota was well into the 50s Wednesday afternoon.

That relatively balmy-for-January air will slide over bare ground on Thursday, and our slowly increasing sun angle should be enough to boost temperatures to record levels across much of southern and central Minnesota.

The record high temperature in the Twin Cities for Jan. 30 is 48 degrees last set in 1989. I think it’s likely we’ll tie or break that record Thursday afternoon.

Our supersized January thaw will hit six days Friday with high temperatures colder but still above the freezing mark.

Snow chances Saturday

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model is noted by meteorologists to be one of the worst performers overall. But it’s been really consistent this week with the notion of snow developing Saturday across Minnesota from basically the Twin Cities area northward.

The latest 18Z Global Forecast System run keeps the idea of lighter accumulating snow in the Twin Cities this weekend with heavier snowfall totals to the north:

The usually trusty European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model keeps most of the snow north of the Twin Cities this weekend. Stay tuned to see how forecast models play this out over the next 48 hours.

Colder next week

The forecast models suggest a return to wintry temperatures next week with highs mainly in the teens and 20s across Minnesota.

NOAA’s outlook favors below-normal temperatures across Minnesota next week.

Some forecast models hint at potential snow late next week.

Stay tuned.