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January leaving like a lamb: 48 degrees Thursday. Saturday snow chances growing?

Twin Cities highs above freezing all week

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

It’s been a cold January in Minnesota. This month's temperatures are running minus 4.4 degrees compared to normal in the Twin Cities. You can see on the map below that our region is running well below normal for the month so far.

Temperature departure from average this month
Temperature departure from normal this month.
Midwest Regional Climate Center

But milder Pacific breezes are blowing this last week of January. Temperatures hit 38 degrees in the Twin Cities Monday afternoon. You can see the thaw working into the Highs Plains and Midwest on Monday afternoon’s temperature map:

Temperatures Monday afternoon
Temperatures Monday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

Tuesday brings another windy but milder-than-normal day for January. Highs will reach the 40s across much of the south, and temperatures will crack the thawing point in most of northern Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA

Wednesday brings a slight temperature speed bump. Highs will be about 10 degrees colder than Tuesday.

But Thursday brings plenty of sunshine and likely the warmest day of January. Highs will be close to 50 degrees in the south, with 40s well to the north Thursday afternoon.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday
NOAA

What little snow we have on the ground around the Twin Cities should be gone by late Thursday.

Saturday snow chance emerging?

The forecast models have been hinting at possible snow chances as we move into February.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model isn’t wasting any time. It cranks up a low-pressure system and develops snow right across much of Minnesota on Saturday.

The forecast model loop below runs between 6 a.m. Saturday and 6 p.m. Sunday.

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model between 6 a.m. Saturday and 6 p.m. Sunday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

It’s way too early to trust any forecast model snowfall output yet, but the chances for accumulating snow are growing especially for the eastern half of Minnesota.

Stay tuned.