Siberian express: Coldest air in about 2 years blowing into Minnesota

Here it comes, Minnesota.

The coldest air mass in about two years blows into Minnesota this weekend.

The cold weather bar was low during Minnesota's warmest winter on record last year — the Twin Cities only managed to make it to minus 8 degrees Jan. 14-15.

The last time we felt cold comparable to what we’ll see in the coming days was Feb. 3, 2023, when the temperature bottomed out at 13 degrees below zero.

Our inbound air mass was sitting over Siberia a week ago. It is blowing into Minnesota from the Arctic Circle region.

On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s HYSPLIT model shows the trajectory of our extreme inbound air mass.

Our January thaw gave us one last mild day Friday across central and southern Minnesota. I saw 43 degrees Friday at Madison in western Minnesota.

The Twin Cities has topped out at 38 degrees as of this post:

Temperatures are already falling through the teens in northwestern Minnesota:

Saturday will feel increasingly arctic across our region. Highs will hover several degrees on either side of zero across Minnesota on Saturday.

The core of the coldest air arrives Sunday through Tuesday.

Lows will bottom out between minus 10 and minus 15 degrees in the Twin Cities on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings. Tuesday will likely be the coldest morning across Minnesota:

Extreme cold warning

This brand of extreme cold comes with little snow cover. That means little insulation to protect underground pipes from the cold.

That’s why the National Weather Service highlights the possibility of frozen pipes as one element of this bitter cold snap.

Extreme cold warnings are up for much of northern and central Minnesota:

Including the cities of Bigfork, Hibbing, International Falls, Aitkin, Hill City, Duluth, Walker, Ely, Pine River, Brainerd, Isabella, and Grand Rapids

106 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY... ...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Cold Weather Advisory, very cold wind chills as low as 31 below zero expected. For the Extreme Cold Warning, dangerously cold wind chills as low as 43 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Crow Wing, Northern Aitkin, South Aitkin, Koochiching, North Cass, North Itasca, South Cass, South Itasca, Carlton and South St. Louis, Central St. Louis, North St. Louis, and Northern Cook and Lake Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Fond du Lac Band, the Mille Lacs Band, East Lake and, Big Sandy Lake areas and the Bois Forte Band, Deer Creek, Nett Lake and, Lake Vermilion areas. Recreation spots such as Voyageurs National Park. The entire Boundary Waters is also included.

* WHEN...For the Cold Weather Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday. For the Extreme Cold Warning, from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 45 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of freezing temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes.

60 to 72 straight subzero hours

Temperatures will fall below zero around 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. Saturday night in the Twin Cities. It’s likely we’ll see subzero highs Sunday into most of Tuesday, so we’ll likely see between 60 and 72 straight subzero hours in the Twin Cities and most of Minnesota.

In case you’re wondering, that’s not even close to a record subzero streak in Minnesota. The Twin Cities has seen at least four straight subzero days 28 times.

Our last four-day subzero run was in February 2021, so about four years ago. This bitter cold snap won’t even crack the top 10 for subzero streaks.

Here’s more bone-chilling subzero detail from the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

Since 1873, the temperature in the Twin Cities has remained at or below zero for at least four consecutive days a total of 28 times, with the most recent occurrence being a four-day stretch ending February 15, 2021. There was a five-day stretch ending January 18th, 1994. The longest such streak on record was seven days, from January 1-7, 1912.

The same stretch in 1912 clocked in at 186 consecutive hourly observations with temperatures at or below zero. The stretch in 1994 lasted 142 hours.

The stretch in 2021 lasted 116 hours from 4pm February 11, to 11am February 16th. Had it not been for a one degree above zero temperature between hourly observations on February 11th the streak would have been extended twenty more hours.

Other fairly recent zero-or-colder stretches include: Midnight, January 29, 2019 to 5 am on February 1, 2019 for a total of 78 hours, 86 hours from 11pm January 12 to 1pm January 16, 2009 and 93 hours from 5pm January 31, 1996 to 1pm February 4, 1996.

How long would a stretch of zero or below weather be to make the top ten list? The mercury would have to stay at or below zero for at least FOUR full calendar days to have a chance of making the list.

Temperatures will moderate starting next Wednesday with highs back around 20 degrees in the Twin Cities.

Be careful out there!