Winter's halftime: Normal temperatures, snow drought continues
No big snowstorms forecast through January
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Welcome to a real Minnesota winter — as far as temperatures are concerned.
It’s been properly cold so far this winter, but there’s a growing snowfall drought across Minnesota.
Let’s crunch the numbers at the halfway point of winter in Minnesota.
Temperatures in the state so far this meteorological winter are running close to normal overall. December was 2.7 degrees warmer than normal in the Twin Cities. But January is making up for that by running 4 degrees below normal so far.
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On the map below, you can see the widespread nature of below-normal temperature departures for January across the Midwest.
Snow drought growing
We’ve managed just 9.7 inches of snow in the Twin Cities so far this season. That is more than a foot behind the average snowfall at this point in winter of 24.4 inches!
Duluth and northern Minnesota have an even bigger snowfall deficit so far this winter. Duluth’s 21.6 inches is around 2 feet below the season-to-date average of 44.1 inches.
Much of Minnesota has received just 25 and 50 percent of snowfall to date this winter. Kansas City, Mo., has recorded more snow than the Twin Cities with 14.5 inches so far this winter!
A more active second half of winter?
So will we catch up on snowfall in the second half of this winter in Minnesota?
As of Wednesday, the forecast maps through the next two weeks do not show any big snowfall events in sight. That could change of course, but our snowfall deficit is likely to grow through the last half of January.
That leaves just February and March (and maybe April) to catch up to the Twin Cities’ average snowfall of around 52 inches. So time is fading.
Our weak La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to keep our temperatures plenty cold through winter.
The jet stream pattern will need to adjust to bring the storm track over Minnesota. That may happen in February, but we will need about 40 inches of snow to approach average seasonal snowfall. That’s a big ask at this point in winter.
Stay tuned.