60 subzero hours? Arctic blast to whack Minnesota late Saturday into Tuesday

We’re tracking the coldest arctic air mass of the season heading for Minnesota next weekend. Call it polar vortex-lite.

First, we’ll feel a little January thaw Thursday and Friday. Highs on both days will ease into the 30s across much of Minnesota. Bank thermometers in Austin, Rochester, and Winona may flash 40 degrees Friday afternoon.

Weekend arctic outbreak

Our balmy spell won’t last long. The season’s most potent arctic front to date will blast through Minnesota Friday night and Saturday.

On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model upper-air loop shows the feed of bitter air blowing straight into Minnesota from inside the Arctic Circle.

Temperatures will crash into subzero territory in the Twin Cities late Saturday night. We are likely to stay below zero until around noon Tuesday. That could mean about 60 hours of subzero temperatures in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows the intense color bands of subzero air washing over Minnesota between noon Saturday and noon Tuesday:

Low temperatures look likely to reach minus 20s to around minus 30 degrees in northern Minnesota. Lows in the Twin Cities are likely to be between minus 10 degrees and minus 15 degrees on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings.

Temperatures will rebound above zero Tuesday afternoon and could reach the 20s above zero by next Wednesday.

Not record cold

Our inbound cold wave looks dangerous for anyone caught outside. I expect cold weather warnings will be issued. But temperatures will not reach record low levels.

Record low temperatures in the Twin Cities next week are in the minus 30 to minus 40-degree range. We won't even come close to that 1970s-style cold.

And our likely 60-hour or so subzero streak is par for the course in a typical Minnesota winter. The Twin Cities has endured 28 episodes of at least four consecutive days below zero.

It spent an eye-watering seven straight days below zero in 1912.

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has more detail on subzero cold streaks in the Twin Cities:

Since 1873, the temperature in the Twin Cities has remained at or below zero for at least four consecutive days a total of 28 times, with the most recent occurrence being a four-day stretch ending February 15, 2021. There was a five-day stretch ending January 18th, 1994. The longest such streak on record was seven days, from January 1-7, 1912.

The same stretch in 1912 clocked in at 186 consecutive hourly observations with temperatures at or below zero. The stretch in 1994 lasted 142 hours.

The stretch in 2021 lasted 116 hours from 4pm February 11, to 11am February 16th. Had it not been for a one degree above zero temperature between hourly observations on February 11th the streak would have been extended twenty more hours.

Other fairly recent zero-or-colder stretches include: Midnight, January 29, 2019 to 5 am on February 1, 2019 for a total of 78 hours, 86 hours from 11pm January 12 to 1pm January 16, 2009 and 93 hours from 5pm January 31, 1996 to 1pm February 4, 1996.

How long would a stretch of zero or below weather be to make the top ten list? The mercury would have to stay at or below zero for at least FOUR full calendar days to have a chance of making the list.

So get ready for a respectable free arctic vacation, though we won’t be breaking any cold weather records.

You may be able to pull off some subzero weather tricks near you in the coming week.