14th straight January thaw on the way for the Twin Cities?

“Behold, the January Thaw.”

I like that title from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources State Climatology Office describing Minnesota’s traditional January thaw.

I was born in Minnesota and have lived here most of my life. I remember those eye-watering winters of the 1970s that seemed to go on forever. I remember riding the bus to school with giant snow piles on the side of the roads in March when it was our snowiest month of the year.

And I remember people like my future mentor WCCO-TV weatherman Bud Kraehling telling us about the January thaw. When it finally arrived, it felt like we were living in the banana belt.

In our current winter context, January thaws have become commonplace.

If we manage two consecutive days above 32 degrees on Thursday and Friday, it will be our 14th straight year with a January thaw in the Twin Cities. That’s a pretty strong streak when you consider that 2 of every 10 years historically don’t feature a January thaw.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office notes:

A January Thaw is defined as two or more consecutive days with maximum temperatures above 32 degrees F. These thaw episodes are a regular part of Minnesota's climate, bringing a brief respite to a Minnesota winter. January Thaws are most common and often most dramatic in southwestern Minnesota, where the local topography can boost daytime temperatures above freezing with relative ease, and sometimes even above 60 F.  Although less extreme, January Thaws also occur most years throughout northern and eastern Minnesota.

In the Twin Cities, January Thaws have occurred 82% of the time historically (back to 1873). For comparison, a "White Christmas" in the Twin Cities (one inch or more of snow cover on Christmas Day) occurs about 72% of the time, meaning we are more likely to have a January Thaw than a White Christmas, and this is true in all but the northern third or so of the state.

With one January Thaw now recorded in 2024, the streak is currently 13 years and counting; the last winter without a January Thaw in the Twin Cities was 2011.

Milder air ahead

We bottomed out at minus 9 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Tuesday morning. That’s the coldest temperature observed so far this winter. We hit minus 7 degrees on Dec. 12, 2024.

Highs recover into the 20s to 30s Wednesday across most of Minnesota.

Highs in the 30s will be common on Thursday. Friday likely delivers the warmest day of the month so far for southern Minnesota with highs near 40 degrees for locations like Rochester.

Enjoy the thaw. I wrote earlier Tuesday about our arctic outbreak arriving this weekend.