Snow Tuesday mainly south of Twin Cities; several inches likely Thursday
Thaw looks likely next week
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We’re watching two weather systems track across parts of Minnesota this week.
The first system is producing light snow across most of southwest and southern Minnesota Tuesday. Snow is falling in southwestern Minnesota spreading east along the Interstate 90 corridor as I type this post.
Most of the snow with this system will stay south of the Twin Cities area. But we may see a few snow showers through Tuesday night. You can see expected snowfall accumulations from Tuesday’s system at the top of this post above.
Thursday snow
Thursday brings a much better chance of snow to a wider swath of Minnesota.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model is typical of many that push an Alberta clipper across Minnesota Thursday. The forecast model loop below runs between midnight and 6 p.m. Thursday.
We’re still 48 hours away from the bulk of Thursday’s system, so snowfall projections will likely still shift. Most forecast models suggest a wide swath of between 3 and 6 inches of fresh powder across much of Minnesota by Friday morning.
Locally higher totals are possible in the sweet spot.
Here’s NOAA’s FV3 snowfall output:
Here’s NOAA’s Global Forecast System model:
If current storm track forecasts hold, a band of 3 to 6-plus inches of snow along a zone on either side of Interstate 94 from Fargo, N.D., through St. Cloud and the Twin Cities seems likely by Friday.
Highs Wednesday will be chilly in between systems, but we’ll see some welcome sunshine.
Thursday brings highs in the teens north to 30s south:
Colder air will funnel in behind Thursday clipper. By Friday morning, subzero temperatures will cover most of the northwest half of Minnesota.
Christmas week thaw
Any snow that we get Thursday should last until at least early next week. We’ll probably have snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
But a significant thaw looks likely next week, peaking after Christmas Day.
NOAA’s Global Forecast System model cranks out highs well into the 30s from Monday through Christmas Day. Then a bubble of milder air looks possible with highs into the 40s and possibly 50 degrees late next week.
What snow we get on Thursday may be history by late next week after Christmas.
Stay tuned.