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Democratic state Rep. Brad Tabke’s legal team offered evidence from voters Tuesday that appeared to show he would have won enough votes from a batch of missing ballots to secure a narrow reelection.

David Zoll, an attorney representing Tabke, brought to the stand six voters whose ballots were thrown away before they were counted in the House 54A race. Each said they’d cast a vote for the DFLer. 

Following the conclusion of testimony on Tuesday, Tabke said the presentation of the votes should clear up any question about the race’s outcome.

“We had six folks testify under oath that they voted, in fact for me, which makes it impossible for the result of this election to change, which is the crux of where we're at on things,” Tabke said.

The voters weren’t identified by name under a court’s order, but Judge Tracy Perzel and the attorneys in the case were supplied with information to verify they were likely the people whose ballots were improperly discarded in October.

One of those who affirmed that her ballot was in the pool that wasn’t counted would have added a vote for the DFLer.

“I have his yard sign at my house and it was present throughout the election,” said a woman identified as “Voter No. 5” while on the stand.

Tabke beat Republican Aaron Paul by 14 votes, a result 

 and certified by the Scott County canvassing board. 

County officials determined as part of a postelection review that 20 ballots were unaccounted for. A preliminary investigation determined 

they were received by the city but never counted

. They were then disposed of and it’s unlikely that they can be recovered.

Testimony from the voters whose ballots were mishandled appear to cement a narrow lead for Tabke in the contest. Even if Paul could show he won the rest, it wouldn’t be enough to gain a lead. 

After the voters were done testifying, a statistician, University of Minnesota professor Aaron Rendahl, called to the stand by Tabke’s attorneys, walked the court through probabilities to demonstrate there was only a remote chance Paul could have overtaken Tabke had the missing ballots been located. 

Reid LeBeau, the attorney for Paul, tried to poke holes in Rendahl’s testimony by saying his analysis didn’t take into account the political behavioral patterns of people who vote early and those who vote on Election Day.

He called on political science professor Thomas Brunell, of the University of Texas at Dallas, to raise doubts about statistical probabilities accounting for voters’ decisions.

“All 20 of those votes could be Republican, all 20 could be Democratic,” Brunell said. “We don’t know and just sort of imputing missing votes just sort of strikes me as inconsistent with free and fair elections.”

Testimony in the trial concluded around midday and the judge set filing deadlines for the attorneys involved before the year’s end.

On Monday, six voters whose ballots were thrown away before they were counted said they’d supported Paul. And they said they were frustrated and disappointed at learning that their ballots hadn’t been counted.

“Frankly, I feel like I’ve been robbed,” a person who voted for Paul, identified as “Voter No. 17,” told the court on Monday. “It makes me question the integrity of our voting system.”

Paul challenged the election result over the missing ballots and said there should be a new election to restore voters’ faith in the system. 

“Election processes weren’t followed and more ballots were destroyed than make up the difference,” Paul said in a statement. “Our commitment to free, fair and secret ballot elections demand a new election.”

A change in the election result in Paul’s favor could 

 to Republicans — either through a temporary vacancy or a Paul win of some fashion. As it stands, the chamber is set to begin the 2025 legislative session in a 67-67 tie.

But that could change before lawmakers return to St. Paul on Jan. 14. Aside from the case in Scott County, there is another in Ramsey County surrounding a Roseville-area district where 

the residency of DFL Rep.-elect Curtis Johnson

Johnson is asking the Supreme Court to intervene and declare the challenge brought by the Republican candidate, Paul Wikstrom, invalid due to the timing of his lawsuit.

The Minnesota Legislature has the final say on the qualification of its members. There could be a challenge to the seating of Johnson and Tabke, even if their election wins stand up in court.

If it comes to that, the lawmakers would not be able to vote on their own standing, according to a widely read interpretation of state law.

County election officials, the mayor of Shakopee and Scott County commissioners who participated in the election canvassing process also testified in the trial on Monday.

Correction (Dec. 17. 2024): An earlier version of this story misstated the number of voters who testified that they had cast ballots for Rep. Brad Tabke. The above story has been corrected.

Dana Ferguson

Author

While 20 ballots believed to have been discarded before being counted won’t be recovered, some voters who cast those missing ballots shared what was on them. They appear to show Rep. Brad Tabke’s narrow lead would stand up.

While 20 ballots believed to have been discarded before being counted won’t be recovered, some voters who cast those share what was on them. Dana Ferguson shares more with Cathy Wurzer before the second day in the courthouse.

In disputed Shakopee-area legislative race, voters share what was on uncounted ballots

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