Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Warm October gives way to cooler November

Occasional rain showers Saturday night through Tuesday

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model between 7 a.m. Sunday and 7 a.m. Tuesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admininstration, via Tropical Tidbits

No sun, no moon, no morn, no noon. November! — Thomas Hood

English poet Thomas Hood nailed it when it comes to November weather in Minnesota.

My least favorite month in Minnesota is our cloudiest month of the year on average. Minnesota November gray would probably be Ralph Lauren’s slowest-selling paint color.

Here are some November stats:

  • 39 percent: possible sunshine on average in November.

  • 50 degrees: Twin Cities normal high temperature on Nov. 1

  • 35 degrees: Twin Cities normal high temperature on Nov. 30.

  • 6.8 inches: average snowfall in the Twin Cities in November.

On the bright side, it gets sunnier on average as we move the winter months in Minnesota.

Warm October

As we await the final official October climate summary, it looks like we finished tied for the fifth-warmest October on record in the Twin Cities. Temperatures ran an astounding 7.9 degrees warmer than normal at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport last month.

Combine that with the warmest September on record and we’re on pace for the warmest meteorological fall on record, so far.

November will determine where we finish. So far, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlooks slightly favor a warmer-than-normal November:

NOAA monthly temperature outlook
Monthly temperature outlook for November
NOAA

Showers ahead

Most of Minnesota will be dry Saturday. Then a series of weak weather systems will bring scattered showers between Saturday night and Tuesday.

Here’s another look at the Global Forecast System model:

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model between 7 a.m. Sunday and 7 a.m. Tuesday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The heaviest rainfall favors southeastern Minnesota through the middle of next week:

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast through Tuesday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather