Hurricane Milton regains Category 5 strength

Hurricane Milton has returned to Category 5 strength. One of the most powerful Atlantic storms on record has completed an eye wall replacement cycle and now features a tighter concentric eye.

As of this post late Tuesday afternoon, the storm is packing 165 mph sustained maximum winds. Gusts within the eye wall are likely over 200 mph.

Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center discussion on intensity:

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton's central pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through the eye a few hours ago. The satellite presentation has improved since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-mile-wide eye. This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and 145 kt. Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with maximum winds estimated to be 145 kt. Another Air Force mission is entering Milton as we speak.

Tracks shifting south

Forecast tracks have shifted a bit south today. Many current models take Milton's eye ashore south of Tampa Bay.

That would be good news for much less storm surge in the Tampa area. But it would raise surge south of Tampa along the coast through Fort Myers.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center discusses the track wobble:

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term 12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours (around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday.

It’s interesting to note that the average 36-hour track forecast error is still 60 miles. We’ll still have to watch Milton closely to see if it ends up making landfall south of Tampa Bay, but a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet will be devastating to coastal areas south of the eye.