Hurricane Helene making landfall Thursday night as a major hurricane

Florida finds itself once again in the crosshairs of a major hurricane. Hurricane Helene will mark the 5th major hurricane to hit the sunshine state in just 7 years. Hurricane Irma 2017 (category 5), Hurricane Ian 2022 (category 5), Hurricane Michael 2018 (category 5), and Hurricane Idalia 2023 (category 4). The Big Bend region was struck by Hurricane Debby (Category 1) less than two months ago.

This large hurricane will speed up and intensify as it continues to move through the warm Gulf waters. Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are averaging 83-86 degrees.

The storm surge in hurricanes is the greatest threat to life and property. Storm surge amounts will peak at 15-20 feet for the Big Bend region. Areas that were hit hard from Hurricane Ian in 2022 will see storm surge around 4-7 feet.

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft

Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft

Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft

Tampa Bay...5-8 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft

East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft

Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

Hurricane Helene’s eye is visible on recent satellite imagery. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.

It’s not just Helene’s intensity that has caught forecasters’ attention, but also its large size. The latest discussion from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center highlights this aspect.

It should also be re-emphasized that Helene is a very large hurricane. In fact, comparing the system with previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico over the past couple of decades, Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.

After Helene moves inland, it is forecast to track over Georgia and then slow down or stall over the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall amounts for the southeastern regions will range between 3-6 inches. The rainfall will pose additional threats of flooding and landslides.

As we approach the end of hurricane season, let’s hope Florida stays safe and is spared from any more storms.