Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Helene likely to rapidly intensify Wednesday

A major hurricane is likely to slam Florida's Gulf Coast Thursday.

Hurricane Helene forecast track
Hurricane Helene forecast track.
NOAA/NHC

Here we go again. Another tropical cyclone is about to undergo rapid intensification Wednesday in the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Helene will likely become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm is forecast to track northward into the bathwater warmth of the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures in the Gulf are in the mid and upper 80s this week.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures
Gulf of Mexico water temperatures.
NOAA

The warm waters will act as rocket fuel for Helene. Forecast models blow up Helene into a major hurricane Wednesday into Thursday.

Hurricane Helene
Hurricane Helene intensity forecast.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The latest NHC forecast is for Helene to peak at 115 mph winds before landfall Thursday. But additional intensification is very possible.

  • FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 19.7N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

  • 12H 25/0600Z 20.4N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

  • 24H 25/1800Z 21.7N 86.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

  • 36H 26/0600Z 23.7N 86.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

  • 48H 26/1800Z 27.0N 84.9W 100 KT 115 MPH

  • 60H 27/0600Z 31.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

  • 72H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

  • 96H 28/1800Z 38.2N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Computer forecast models consensus lies around a likely landfall along Florida’s Big bend area Thursday.

Hurricane Helene 2
Hurricane Helene computer model forecast tracks.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Storm surge over 10 feet is likely in the Big Bend. Surge of 5 to 8 feet is possible around the Tampa Bay area.

Storm surge forecast
Storm surge forecast.
NOAA