Hot, dry weather and wildfire smoke are elevating ground-level ozone across most of Minnesota today.

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Our next chance for some much-needed rainfall comes with a slight risk of severe weather. 

A relatively weak cool front will cross Minnesota on Thursday. Storms will likely bubble up Wednesday in western Minnesota and cross into eastern Minnesota by Thursday.

NOAA’s FV3 model shows the likely progression of storms across Minnesota Wednesday sliding into eastern Minnesota Thursday. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Wednesday and 7 a.m. Thursday. The precise location and timing of storms will evolve but this gives you a general idea of coverage and timing.

As you can see at the top of this post, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a slight risk for severe storms across most of eastern Minnesota, on Thursday. For those who want to geek out on the state of the atmosphere above Minnesota on Thursday, here’s the technical forecast discussion from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. 

Overall rainfall coverage looks patchy. But some locations could pick up one to two inches of rainfall locally. 

Highs Wednesday will remain in the summery 80s ahead of the front. 

Keep an eye out for possible severe weather watches and warnings on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Paul Huttner

Author

Scattered storms will likely rumble across Minnesota late Wednesday and Thursday. 

NOAA via Iowa Emergency Management 

NOAA via tropical tidbits

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

Slight severe risk late Wednesday and Thursday

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