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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Isolated pop-up thundershowers Tuesday; heat builds by the weekend

Classic Minnesota summer weather pattern this week

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Who likes plenty of sunshine and highs in the 80s? If that’s your jam, this is your week.

We’re enjoying a typical summer weather pattern over Minnesota. Highs will be mostly in the 80s all week long.

There’s enough moisture to bubble up a few isolated afternoon thundershowers. The rainfall coverage is low, only around 10 percent of Minnesota is getting rain at any one time. But if you get under one of these Miami-style cloudbursts it’s a deluge. Walk between the raindrops if you can.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV3 model has done a pretty good job of capturing the notion of spotty thundershowers drifting southeast.

The forecast model loop below runs between 3 p.m. Tuesday and midnight Wednesday. And check out all the rain across Illinois and Indiana. It’s the remnants of Hurricane Beryl!

NOAA FV3 model
Finite­-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model between 3 p.m. Tuesday and midnight Wednesday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Heat builds this weekend

We’re still on for a steamy weekend across Minnesota. Right now Sunday looks like the hottest day by a few degrees. Highs should reach the 90s in most of southern Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

One factor that’s going to drive heat index values high this weekend is tropical moisture levels with high dew points.

The plume of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is one thing. Then add all the standing water and evaporation from saturated soils across Minnesota. Now toss in evapotranspiration from the sea of corn crops across Iowa and Minnesota pumping soil moisture into the air and you have the perfect recipe for driving dew points to around 80 degrees by Sunday.

Evapotranspiration process
Evapotranspiration process
Extension Australia

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model continues to push dew point to near 80 degrees in southern Minnesota by Sunday afternoon.

NOAA GFS dew point output
Global Forecast System dew point output between 7 a.m. Friday and 7 p.m. Sunday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Heat index values around 100 degrees are still quite possible on Sunday.

Stay tuned.